Global access to cooling gaps 2023: Summary

Providing access to sustainable cooling is a pressing development and climate adaptation challenge. In 2022 and 2023, global average temperatures have reached new highs. The effects of this climate change have been record-breaking temperatures in China, Iran, Mexico, North Africa and many other regions, putting lives and livelihoods at risk. In the absence of reliable energy access and incomes sufficient for populations to afford cooling, heat stress threatens human health and safety, particularly in rural areas in need of reliable cold chains for food and vaccines.

Failure to adapt with sustainable solutions also poses long-term challenges to climate change mitigation efforts. While cooling already accounts for more than 7 percent of global emissions, serving the unmet cooling needs of billions of people with inefficient solutions is likely to cause a drastic increase in energy demand and emissions, slowing progress on global decarbonization efforts.  
 

Chilling Prospects uses data to shine a light on the state of cooling access gaps for vulnerable populations. The 2023 analysis assesses cooling access risks across 77 countries where vulnerable populations live and provides analysis based on factors of vulnerability, tracking progress year over year with the best available data. It disaggregates between populations at high risk due to a lack of access to cooling for thermal comfort, food and agricultural produce and medical products (the rural and urban poor), those at medium risk who are ready to purchase cooling solutions but have limited options that are sustainable and affordable (the lower-middle-income population), and those at low risk who are likely able to adopt efficient cooling solutions (the middle-income population). For the first time, the analysis also tracks risk by gender.  

In an effort to ensure the most accurate data, the Chilling Prospects 2023 analysis revises figures from the 2022 analysis on the basis of newly available data on poverty. The World Bank’s revision of the international poverty line from USD 1.90 to USD 2.15 per day has led to marginal changes in global poverty estimates, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, where the revision indicates higher purchasing power parity than previously estimated. Moreover, improvements in data availability for India and several West African countries have allowed for downward adjustments of cooling access risk estimates. The analysis of risk also incorporates the latest data from the SDG7 Tracking Report on electricity access gaps, which have continued to reduce in both rural and urban areas.  

High risk

Within the 77 countries included in the Chilling Prospects 2023 analysis, 1.12 billion people among the rural and urban poor are considered to be at high risk due to a lack of access to cooling. The number of people at high risk decreased from 1.14 billion people in 2022 to 1.12 billion in 2023 analysis, a decrease of approximately 20.4 million people. Within this, the rural poor population decreased by 21.9 million people across the 77 countries assessed and the number of urban poor increased by 1.5 million people.  

Driving change in this category are decreases in the rural poor population in Asia and the Middle East, including significant reductions observed in Bangladesh (-16 percent) and Pakistan (-15 percent). Many countries in Asia and the Middle East are also seeing slow but steady declines in their urban poor population at risk, with the regional figure offset by an increase in China of 1.3 million urban poor. In Latin America and the Caribbean, the largest proportion of those at high risk live in Brazil where consistent but marginal increases in the rural and urban poor offset progress in other countries of the region. At the same time, there is continued growth of the rural poor population in Africa, likely due to slower than needed progress on electricity access and economically constrained governments working in an inflationary environment.   

Within the 77 countries included in the Chilling Prospects 2023 analysis, there are an estimated 596 million women and 525 million men at high risk due to a lack of access to cooling, with women making up approximately 52 percent of the population at high risk in rural areas and 54 percent of the population at high risk in urban areas.

Critical 9

In the Critical 9 countries for access to cooling, [3] there are 772.2 million people at high risk due to a lack of access to cooling. This includes 183.8 million people among the rural poor and 588.4 million people among the urban poor. By proportion of the population, the risk is most pronounced in Mozambique, where 83 percent of the population is at high risk, followed by Nigeria (53 percent) and Sudan (44 percent). In addition, the Critical 9 are home to over 2.2 billion people among the lower-middle income at medium risk. Significant increases were observed in Nigeria, Pakistan and Sudan compared to 2022. 

Table: Critical 9 countries, people at high risk (2022–23) 

A shift in risk in India, which has the largest number of people at high and medium risk, is likely the most significant dynamic observed overall, with rural poor and urban poor populations declining by 16.9 million people and 4.2 million people respectively. At the same time, India’s lower-middle-income population at medium risk has grown by an additional 21.8 million people, with the shift likely a reflection of progress in rural electricity access and economic resilience, with a levelling off of poverty in 2021-22 following an increase at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Figure: India: High and medium risk (2021–23)

Medium risk

Within the 77 countries included in the Chilling Prospects 2023 analysis, 2.90 billion lower-middle-income people are at medium risk of a lack of access to cooling, an increase of approximately 11 million people, driven primarily by increases in South Asia (India,  Pakistan, Bangladesh), Nigeria and Yemen that are partially offset by a decrease of almost 39 million in China. Overall, the trend for the lower-middle-income group at medium risk continues upwards, increasing by 0.4 percent in the 2023 analysis and 7.1 percent overall between 2019 and 2023. 

There are an estimated 1.39 billion women and 1.52 billion men at medium risk. The larger number of men in this risk group aligns with the overrepresentation of women in high-risk groups. Approximately 80 percent of those at medium risk fall below the higher poverty line of USD 6.85 per day; coupled with projections of unequal income distribution by gender, this may lead to greater affordability constraints and challenges for women in accessing cooling solutions. 

Low risk

Within the 77 countries included in the Chilling Prospects 2023 analysis, 958.7 million middle-income people are at low risk due to a lack of access to cooling. This group has grown by approximately 57 million people since 2022, showing a return to a positive trend after a drop at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.  Approximately 475 million middle-income women and 484 million middle-income men are considered at low risk in 2023, making this group the most balanced in terms of gender. 

Global access to cooling population at risk

The scope of cooling access gaps in 2023, as well as the evident consequences of extreme heat globally, can serve as a reminder to governments, development finance institutions (DFIs), and other stakeholders of the need to accelerate action to deliver sustainable cooling solutions to the most vulnerable. As the world prepares for COP28, six case studies demonstrate notable efforts to advance policy progress, sustainable cooling finance and equity. 

Notes and references

[1] Each year, the Chilling Prospects report projects an estimate of the current state of access to cooling gaps, based on the best available data and evidence. Chilling Prospects 2023 presents an analysis of cooling access gaps at the beginning of 2023, based on the best available data. 
[2] The analysis assesses 54 high-impact countries for access to cooling determined by previous Chilling Prospects analyses, as well as high-temperature regions of 23 countries not considered to be high impact, but with localized cooling access risks. High-impact countries are those expected to experience sustained high temperatures with significant populations at high risk from a lack of access to cooling due to poverty and electricity access gaps. For a full list, see here. The evaluation of an additional 23 countries considers that heat vulnerability can exist regionally despite a country having a low overall average temperature and number of Cooling Degree Days, and that lower socioeconomic status can create cooling access risks in middle-income or developed countries.
[3] The Critical 9 countries are: Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mozambique, Nigeria, Pakistan and Sudan.