Cooling access gaps in 2023 by income group

Chilling Prospects assesses cooling access risks across 77 countries and provides analysis based on factors of vulnerability, tracking progress year over year with the best available data. It disaggregates between the rural poor and urban poor at high risk due to a lack of access to cooling, the lower-middle-income population at medium risk and the middle-income population at low risk. For the first time, it tracks risk by gender.

Rural poor

Within the 77 countries included in the Chilling Prospects 2023 analysis, 306.1 million people are among the rural poor at high risk due to a lack of access to cooling. The rural poor lack access to electricity and are likely to live in extreme poverty. Many are likely to engage in subsistence farming but lack access to an intact cold chain that would enable them to sell their products further afield at a higher price. There may also be a lack of medical cold chains in rural poor communities, putting lives at risk from spoiled medicines and vaccines.

Figure: The rural poor at high risk (2023)

The number of rural poor at high risk fell from 317.8 million in 2022 to 296.2 million in the 2023 analysis, a decrease of approximately 21.6 million people, or 6.8 percent. The reduction was driven primarily by India, where efforts to expand electricity access in rural areas have been successful. Together with electricity access progress and a levelling off of poverty after an increase at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, new poverty estimates drove a reduction in the estimated number of rural poor by 16.9 million people. Bangladesh, Pakistan and Yemen also saw substantive reductions both by volume and proportionally, experiencing between 15 and 16 percent reductions in their rural poor populations. 

Figure: The rural poor by region (2013–23)

Within the rural poor at risk, 52 percent of those at risk are women compared to 48 percent men. Significant gender imbalances were observed in Turkmenistan (68.3 percent women, 31.7 percent men), Algeria (67.3 percent women, 32.7 percent men), and Colombia (54.8 percent women, 45.2 percent men), and in general, rural poor populations at risk tend to have a majority of women. As noted in the case study of women among the rural poor in Mozambique, women working in the agricultural sector can be particularly at risk due both to heat and a lack of formality in employment structures., women working in the agricultural sector can be particularly at risk due both to heat and a lack of formality in employment structures.

India, Nigeria and Uganda are home to the highest number of rural poor at risk, and while progress has been made in India, its 93.3 million rural poor at highest risk remains more than double that of the second highest country, Nigeria. Among the countries in the top 10 for the rural poor at high risk, those in Sub-Saharan Africa continue to see marginal but consistent increases in risk. 

Table: Top 10 countries with rural poor at high risk (2021–23)

Urban poor

Within the 77 countries included in the Chilling Prospects 2023 analysis, 815.0 million people are among the urban poor considered to be at high risk due to a lack of access to cooling. The urban poor may have some access to electricity, but the quality of their housing is likely too poor to protect them from extreme heat, and their income may not be sufficient to purchase or run a fan. They may own or have access to a refrigerator, but intermittent electricity supplies may mean that food often spoils and there is a high risk of poor nutrition or food poisoning.

Figure: The urban poor at high risk (2023)

The number of urban poor at high risk increased from 813.5 million in 2022 to 815.0 million in the 2023 analysis, an increase of 1.5 million people. The reduction was driven primarily by an increase in China of 1.3 million urban poor, which offset slow but consistent declines in many countries in Asia and the Middle East. Overall, however, the trend for the urban poor at risk continues to be upwards, increasing by 4.4 percent in high-impact countries between 2019 and 2023.

Within the urban poor at high risk in the countries assessed, 53 percent are women compared to 47 percent men. Significant gender imbalances were observed in Myanmar (70.7 percent women), Pakistan (65.9 percent women) and Benin (64.8 percent women). As noted in the case study on cooling for poor women in Accra, for women living in poor urban settlements, the increases in heat stress and a lack of access to cooling have important implications both at work and in the home.

The most significant reductions in the urban poor at risk compared to 2022 were in Sri Lanka (-14.4 percent), Papua New Guinea (-12.9 percent) and Timor Leste (-7.7 percent). By volume, the most significant reductions occurred in India (-4.2 million people) and in Yemen (-1.1 million people). Substantial increases in the proportion of urban poor at risk were observed in Djibouti (+6.7 percent), Angola (+5 percent) and Somalia (+4.5 percent). 

Overall, an observed trend for the urban poor at high risk between 2019 and 2023 is a general decrease in the population at risk in Asian countries, including in Sri Lanka and Thailand, where risk has been reduced by 13 percent and 16.5 percent respectively, in this period. However, in Africa, substantial increases in the urban poor populations have occurred since 2019, notably in Angola (+20.1 percent), Mozambique (+19.1 percent) and Niger (+19 percent).

Figure: The urban poor by region (2013–23)

India, China and Nigeria are home to the highest number of urban poor at risk. India saw a reduction of its urban poor at risk by approximately 4.1 million people between 2022 and 2023, and while the urban poor population in China and Nigeria grew, the increases in both countries are below their overall urbanization rates. Among the countries in the top 10 for the rural poor at risk by volume, those in Sub-Saharan Africa continue to see marginal but consistent increases. 

Table: Top 10 countries with urban poor at high risk (2021–23)

Lower-middle-income population

Within the 77 countries included in the Chilling Prospects 2023 analysis, 2.90 billion lower-middle-income people are at medium risk of a lack of access to cooling. The population at medium risk represents an increasingly affluent lower-middle-income class that is on the brink of purchasing the lowest first-cost air conditioner or refrigerator on the market. Limited purchasing choices available to this group favour cooling devices that are likely inefficient and could cause a dramatic increase in energy consumption, energy costs and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The lower-middle income segment of the population lives outside of rural and urban poverty, though on less than USD 10.01 per day.

Figure: Lower-middle-income population at medium risk by country (2023)

The number of lower-middle-income people at medium risk increased by approximately 11 million between 2022 and 2023. The increase was driven primarily by increases in South Asia (India, Bangladesh, Pakistan), Nigeria and Yemen. In particular, an increase of 21.8 million people was observed in India, and an increase of 4.6 million people in Nigeria. This growth was partially offset by a decrease of almost 39 million people in China. Other notable reductions in the lower-middle-income population compared to 2022 were seen in Vietnam, with a 12.5 percent reduction of approximately 3 million people, and in Iraq, with a 16.9 percent reduction supporting an overall reduction of 64.8 percent between 2019 and 2023. Overall, the trend for the lower-middle-income group continues upwards, increasing by 0.4 percent in 2023 and by 7.1 percent between 2019 and 2023. 

Within the 77 countries analyzed, approximately 1.39 billion lower-middle-income women and 1.53 million lower-middle-income men are at medium risk. This gender disparity in the medium-risk group reflects the overrepresentation of women living below the poverty line. However, it is important to note that the medium-risk population is heterogeneous. In 54 high-impact countries, over 3.2 billion people lived on incomes ranging from USD 2.15 to USD 10.00 per day in 2019. Among them, nearly 2.5 billion (almost 80 percent of the total) lived on incomes below USD 6.85 per day, and the COVID-19 pandemic pushed additional individuals into poverty in 2020.

Although data on poverty by gender are limited, projections from UN Women, UNDP and the Pardee Center for International Futures indicate that poverty rates for women tend to be higher than those for men in all regions where the risk of limited access to cooling is present even when considering higher poverty lines. This suggests that while the medium-risk population predominantly consists of men, a more in-depth analysis of gender-specific income distributions within this group may reveal a concentration of women in the lower income brackets, which could result in greater affordability constraints when purchasing cooling solutions.

Figure: Poverty rates for women and men at USD 5.50 poverty lines in selected regions (2023)

India, China and Indonesia are home to the highest number of lower-middle-income people at medium risk. While this share of the population in Indonesia and Myanmar was slightly lower in 2023 than in 2022, the overall trend for the top 10 countries for lower-middle-income population by volume continues substantially upwards as both a product of a decrease in extreme poverty after an increase during the COVID-19 pandemic, and a lower-middle-income population that has not yet fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels.

Table: Top 10 countries with lower-middle-income populations at medium risk (2021–23)

Middle-income population

Within the 77 countries included in the Chilling Prospects 2023 analysis, 958.7 million people are among the middle-income population group and considered to be at low risk of a lack of access to cooling. The middle-income population at low risk typically owns an air conditioner and a refrigerator and may be able to afford more efficient ones. They may also be able to move to better-designed, more efficient housing and working environments, where they might also make conscious choices to minimize the use of or not own an air-conditioning unit. The middle-income population at low risk lives on between USD 10.01 and USD 20 per day. 

Figure: The middle-income population at low risk (2023)

The number of middle-income people at low risk has increased from 901.9 million in 2022, by approximately 56.8 million people. This shows a return to a positive trend after a decrease at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, driven by growth in the middle-income population in the 77 countries. Among the countries assessed, this share of the population increased by 6.3 percent compared to 2022 but remains approximately 2.8 percent below pre-pandemic levels. 

The most significant change by volume in the middle-income population at low risk compared to 2022 was in China, which saw an increase of 37.8 million people, or approximately 8.3 percent. Proportionally, significant increases compared to 2022 were observed in Bangladesh (+26 percent), Togo, (+25.4 percent) and India (+23.6 percent). Notable reductions in the low-risk middle-income population compared to 2022 occurred in Sudan (-37.7 percent), the Republic of the Congo (-22.4 percent) and Malawi (-31.2 percent).

Within the lower-middle income at low risk, approximately 50 percent are women (474.8 million compared to 483.9 million men), making this group the most balanced. However, further analysis is required to gain insight into how gender norms and dynamics influence different cooling needs for men and women, as well as different roles and priorities in the design and use of sustainable cooling solutions. 

China, Brazil and India are home to the highest number of middle-income people at low risk. Over the last three years, India’s middle-income population appears to have been impacted significantly by the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a decrease of 44.9 million people in this group compared to the 2021 analysis. By contrast, India’s medium-risk, lower-middle-income group increased by approximately 103 million people over the same period, reflecting both poverty reduction and economic constraints posed by the pandemic and subsequent inflationary pressures.

Similarly, Brazil experienced a decrease of its middle-income population at low risk of approximately 12.2 million people between 2021 and 2023, as well as an increase in its lower-middle-income population of 9.7 million over the same period. With the exception of Iran each of the top 10 countries saw decreases by volume between 2021 and 2022 followed by increases between 2022 and 2023.  

Table: Top 10 countries with middle-income populations at low risk (2021–23)