Cooling access gaps in 2023 by risk profile

Chilling Prospects assesses cooling access risks across 77 countries where vulnerable populations live and provides analysis based on factors of vulnerability, tracking progress year over year with the best available data.

It disaggregates between populations at high risk due to a lack of access to cooling for thermal comfort, food and agricultural produce and medical products (the rural and urban poor), those at medium risk who are ready to purchase cooling solutions but have limited options that are sustainable and affordable (the lower-middle-income population), and those at low risk who are likely able to adopt efficient cooling solutions (the middle-income population). For the first time, the analysis also tracks risk by gender. 

High risk

Within the 77 countries included in the Chilling Prospects 2023 analysis, 1.12 billion people are considered to be at high risk due to a lack of access to cooling among the rural and urban poor. Among those at high risk are:

• 306.1 million people among the rural poor, who lack access to electricity and live in extreme poverty. Many are likely to engage in subsistence farming but lack access to an intact cold chain that would enable them to sell their products further afield at a higher price. There may also be a lack of medical cold chains in rural poor communities, putting lives at risk from spoiled medicines and vaccines.
• 815.0 million among the urban poor, who have limited or no access to electricity, and whose quality of housing is likely too poor to protect them from extreme heat. Their income may not be sufficient to purchase or run a fan. They may own or have access to a refrigerator, but intermittent electricity supplies may mean that food often spoils and there is a high risk of poor nutrition or food poisoning.
• 596.4 million women and 524.8 million men in poor rural and urban settings, with women representing approximately 53 percent of the total population at high risk. Women face higher vulnerability to heat than their male counterparts due to intersecting disparities such as a lack of essential services including safe water and sanitation, higher care burdens in often crowded and poorly built homes, and the higher likelihood of working in low-paid, strenuous and exploitative jobs.    

The number of people at high risk decreased from 1.14 billion to 1.12 billion between 2022 and 2023, a decrease of approximately 20.4   million people. Within this, the rural poor population decreased by 21.9 million people across the 77 countries assessed, and the urban poor increased by approximately 1.5 million people. 

The reduction in the number of rural poor at high risk was driven primarily by India, where there have been rapid and successful efforts to expand electricity access in rural areas. Increased electricity access, economic resilience, consistent progress on reducing poverty and new, more granular data on poverty estimates led to a decrease in the estimate of the rural poor at high risk by 16.9 million people, compared to the revised 2022 figures. Bangladesh, Pakistan and Yemen also saw substantive reductions by volume and in percentage, experiencing between 15 and 16 percent reductions in their rural poor populations at high risk between the 2022 and 2023 analyses. 

The number of urban poor at high risk increased from 813.5 million to 815.0 million driven primarily by an increase in populations living in slums in the 77 countries by an estimated 12 million people. This increase offset the effects of sustained electrification progress in urban areas and of a return to decreasing poverty trends after a setback during the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, the trend for the urban poor at risk continues to be upwards, increasing by 4.4 percent in high-impact countries [1] between 2019 and 2023, underpinned by rapid urbanization.

India, China and Nigeria are home to the largest number of people at high risk, together accounting for over 570 million people. The fast-growing economies of Bangladesh, Brazil, Indonesia and Pakistan each have over 30 million people at high risk, and Angola, Mozambique, Sudan and Uganda each have over 20 million people at high risk. In the top 10 countries, women are overrepresented in the populations at high risk compared to the national population, with the exceptions of China and Indonesia. An estimated 414 million women are at high risk in the top 10 countries combined.  

Table: Top 10 countries with rural and urban poor populations at high risk (2023)

The number of people at high risk as a proportion of the overall population continues to be a cause for concern among the 31 high-impact countries in Africa. In 10 of these, over 50 percent of the population is at high risk. In Asia, Yemen notably has 75 percent of its population at high risk between the rural and urban poor. 

Table: 10 African countries with over 50 percent of total population at high risk (2023)

Figure: Proportion of the population at high risk among 31 high-impact countries in Africa (2023)

The evaluation of 23 non-high-impact countries with high-temperature regions considers that heat vulnerability can exist locally despite medium-low average temperatures and low average Cooling Degree Days at a national scale. These regions are home to an estimated 26.4 million women and 24.6 million men at high risk. This includes, for example, approximately 12.8 million people at high risk in nine high-temperature regions of the Syrian Arab Republic, 10.5 million at high risk in 23 Mexican states, and approximately 9.6 million at high risk in four high-temperature regions of Kenya. [2]

Figure: Populations at high risk in non-high-impact countries (2023)

Medium risk

Within the 77 countries included in the Chilling Prospects 2023 analysis, 2.90 billion lower-middle-income people are at medium risk of a lack of access to cooling. The population at medium risk represents an increasingly affluent lower-middle-income class that is on the brink of purchasing the lowest first-cost air conditioner or refrigerator on the market. Limited purchasing choices available to this group favour cooling devices that are likely inefficient and could cause a dramatic increase in energy consumption, energy costs and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The lower-middle income segment of the population lives outside of rural and urban poverty, though on less than USD 10.01 per day.

Figure: Lower-middle-income population at medium risk by country (2023)

The number of lower-middle-income people at medium risk increased by approximately 11 million between 2022 and 2023. The increase was driven primarily by increases in South Asia (India, Bangladesh, Pakistan), Nigeria and Yemen. In particular, an increase of 21.8 million people was observed in India, and an increase of 4.6 million people in Nigeria. This growth was partially offset by a decrease of almost 39 million people in China.

Other notable reductions in the lower-middle-income population compared to 2022 were seen in Vietnam, with a 12.5 percent reduction of approximately 3 million people, and in Iraq, with a 16.9 percent reduction supporting an overall reduction of 64.8 percent between 2019 and 2023. Overall, the trend for the lower-middle-income group continues upwards, increasing by 0.4 percent in 2023 and 7.1 percent between 2019 and 2023.

Within the 77 countries analyzed, approximately 1.39 billion lower-middle-income women and 1.53 million lower-middle-income men are at medium risk. This gender disparity in the medium-risk group reflects the overrepresentation of women living below the poverty line. However, it is important to note that the medium-risk population is heterogeneous. In 54 high-impact countries, over 3.2 billion people lived on incomes ranging from USD 2.15 to USD 10.00 per day in 2019. Among them, nearly 2.5 billion (almost 80 percent of the total) lived on incomes below USD 6.85 per day, and the COVID-19 pandemic pushed additional individuals into poverty in 2020.

Although data on poverty by gender are limited, projections from UN Women, UNDP and the Pardee Center for International Futures indicate that poverty rates for women tend to be higher than those for men in all regions where the risk of limited access to cooling is present even when considering higher poverty lines. This suggests that while the medium-risk population predominantly consists of men, a more in-depth analysis of gender-specific income distributions within this group may reveal a concentration of women in the lower income brackets, which could result in greater affordability constraints when purchasing cooling solutions.

Figure: Poverty rates for women and men at USD 5.50 poverty lines in selected regions (2023)

India, China and Indonesia are home to the highest number of lower-middle-income people at medium risk. While this share of the population in Indonesia and Myanmar was slightly lower in 2023 than in 2022, the overall trend for the top 10 countries for lower-middle-income population by volume continues substantially upwards as both a product of a decrease in extreme poverty after an increase during the COVID-19 pandemic, and a lower-middle-income population that has not yet fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels.

Table: Top 10 countries with lower-middle-income populations at medium risk (2021–23)

Low risk

Within the 77 countries included in the Chilling Prospects 2023 analysis, 958.7 million people are among the middle-income population group and considered to be at low risk of a lack of access to cooling. The middle-income population at low risk typically owns an air conditioner and a refrigerator and may be able to afford more efficient ones. They may also be able to move to better-designed, more efficient housing and working environments, where they might also make conscious choices to minimize the use of or not own an air-conditioning unit. The middle-income population at low risk lives on between USD 10.01 and USD 20 per day. 

Figure: The middle-income population at low risk (2023)

The number of middle-income people at low risk has increased from 901.9 million in 2022, by approximately 56.8 million people. This shows a return to a positive trend after a decrease at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, driven by growth in the middle-income population in the 77 countries. Among the countries assessed, this share of the population increased by 6.3 percent compared to 2022 but remains approximately 2.8 percent below pre-pandemic levels. 

The most significant change by volume in the middle-income population at low risk compared to 2022 was in China, which saw an increase of 37.8 million people, or approximately 8.3 percent. Proportionally, significant increases compared to 2022 were observed in Bangladesh (+26 percent), Togo, (+25.4 percent) and India (+23.6 percent). Notable reductions in the low-risk middle-income population compared to 2022 occurred in Sudan (-37.7 percent), the Republic of the Congo (-22.4 percent) and Malawi (-31.2 percent).

Within the lower-middle income at low risk, approximately 50 percent are women (474.8 million compared to 483.9 million men), making this group the most balanced. However, further analysis is required to gain insight into how gender norms and dynamics influence different cooling needs for men and women, as well as different roles and priorities in the design and use of sustainable cooling solutions. 

China, Brazil and India are home to the highest number of middle-income people at low risk. Over the last three years, India’s middle-income population appears to have been impacted significantly by the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a decrease of 44.9 million people in this group compared to the 2021 analysis. By contrast, India’s medium-risk, lower-middle-income group increased by approximately 103 million people over the same period, reflecting both poverty reduction and economic constraints posed by the pandemic and subsequent inflationary pressures.

Similarly, Brazil experienced a decrease of its middle-income population at low risk of approximately 12.2 million people between 2021 and 2023, as well as an increase in its lower-middle-income population of 9.7 million over the same period. With the exception of Iran each of the top 10 countries saw decreases by volume between 2021 and 2022 followed by increases between 2022 and 2023.  

Table: Top 10 countries with middle-income populations at low risk (2021–23)

Notes and references

[1] High-impact countries are those expected to experience sustained high temperatures with significant populations at high risk from a lack of access to cooling due to poverty and electricity access gaps. For a full list, see here.
[2] Sustainable Energy for All continuously evaluates countries that may have at-risk populations due to a lack of access to cooling, with four high-temperature regions of Kenya added in 2023.