Regional access to cooling risk

The Chilling Prospects 2023 analysis finds that in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), there are 67.8 million people at high risk due to a lack of access to cooling. Across 35 African countries, there are 370.3 million people at high risk due to a lack of access to cooling, 53 percent of them women and 47 percent men. Within the 27 countries in Asia and the Middle East assessed, there are 679.8 million people at high risk due to a lack of access to cooling, a decrease of 11 percent compared to 2022. The region accounts for almost 47 percent of those at high risk globally.

The scope of cooling access gaps in 2023 and the evident consequences of extreme heat globally can serve as a reminder to governments, development finance institutions (DFIs), and other stakeholders of the need to accelerate action to deliver sustainable cooling solutions to the most vulnerable.

Latin America and the Caribbean

Among the 14 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) included in the Chilling Prospects 2023 analysis there are 67.8 million people at high risk due to a lack of access to cooling, which represents 6 percent of this share globally and a decrease of approximately 286.5 thousand people in LAC compared to 2022. Brazil has the largest population at high risk with 34.2 million people. Across the region 34 million women and 33.8 million men are at high risk.

Furthermore, there are 124.9 million people at medium risk of a lack of access to cooling in LAC, only a marginal decrease compared to 2022 when the lower-middle-income population was 125.0 million.  Approximately 135.5 million people are among the middle income at low risk in LAC, which is approximately 14 percent of those at low risk globally. This figure increased by 1.8 million compared to 2022 when 133.7 million people were estimated to be in this risk group. Both populations at medium and low risk include approximately 51 percent women and 49 percent men.

Table: Access to cooling risk in Latin America and the Caribbean (2022–23)

Rural poor in LAC

Among the 14 countries in LAC included in the Chilling Prospects 2023 analysis, 6.8 million people are among the rural poor at high risk, accounting for 2.2 percent of the global total.  This figure has remained largely unchanged since 2022. Brazil accounts for 4.3 million, or 63 percent of the rural poor in LAC. The second largest rural poor population is in Mexico, with almost 850,000 people.  Overall, 52 percent of the rural poor in the region are women and 48 percent are men.

Women are overrepresented in the rural poor at high risk compared to the national population in seven of the 14 countries analyzed, with the highest share in Colombia (55 percent) and Paraguay (53 percent), while men are overrepresented in El Salvador, Honduras and Venezuela. Peru had the largest unelectrified rural population among the countries analyzed, with 1.2 million people in 2019, but a steady decrease in extreme poverty has mitigated the number of rural poor at high risk.  

Urban poor in LAC

There is a large urban poor population at high risk due to a lack of access to cooling in LAC, making up 7.5 percent of the total population in the 77 assessed countries and amounting to 61.1 million people. This figure declined, but only marginally (by 280,000 people) compared to 2022. While urban electricity access gaps in the countries analyzed have almost fully closed, persisting urban poverty and growth in informal settlements have continued to drive risk in urban poor populations. Of the urban poor at risk in LAC, 49 percent (29.2 million people) live in Brazil and of these, approximately 52 percent are women.

Recent trends in this risk group in Brazil reflect changes in extreme poverty. Newly available data show that poverty in 2020 was lower than in 2019 but bounced back in 2021 when the government reduced the coverage of cash transfer programmes. The second largest urban poor population in LAC is in Mexico, with 8.7 million people at risk in 23 states with high heat hazard.

Lower-middle-income population in LAC

Within the countries assessed, the lower-middle-income population at medium risk represents 4.3 percent of the global total, with 124.9 million people. This number comprises approximately 51 percent women and 49 percent men. Compared to 2022, the lower-middle-income population remained largely stable overall, with significant increases in Argentina and Colombia offset by decreases in Brazil and Bolivia.

Brazil is home to 58.8 million of this lower-middle-income population. Notably, women make up the majority of the population at medium risk in Peru (57 percent) and the Dominican Republic, while men are overrepresented in Honduras (52 percent). 

Middle-income population in LAC

The middle-income population at low risk increased by 1.8 million, from 133.7 million in 2022 to 135.5 million in 2023. This includes an increase of 1.4 million people in Brazil, and a decrease of 660,000 people in Argentina, the two countries that host the majority of the medium-risk population in the region. Overall, this population comprises 51 percent women and 49 percent men in 2023, although men are significantly overrepresented in the population at medium risk in Ecuador (53 percent).  

Figure: Populations at risk in Latin America and the Caribbean (2019–23)

Africa

Across 35 African countries included in the Chilling Prospects analysis, there are 370.3 million people at high risk due to a lack of access to cooling, 53 percent of them women and 47 percent men. The overall figure represents 33 percent of those at high risk globally and is an increase of 5.1 million people in Africa from 2022. The number of people at high risk as a proportion of the overall population continues to be a cause for concern, with 10 countries in Africa home to over 50 percent of the population at high risk. 

Table: 10 African countries with over 50 percent of total population at high risk (2023)

Furthermore, in the 35 African countries analyzed, there are 455.3 million lower-middle-income people at medium risk of a lack of access to cooling, 48 percent of them women and 52 percent of them men, and 70 million middle-income people at low risk, including approximately 50 percent women. 

Table: Access to cooling risk in Africa (2022–23)

Rural poor in Africa

153.5 million rural dwellers across Africa are at high risk due to a lack of access to cooling. This is a marginal increase of 1.4 million from 2022. The largest absolute growth occurred in Niger where 141,000 more people in rural settings are at high risk because they lack access to cooling compared to 2022, while Algeria and Mozambique saw the largest relative increases. On average, women make up approximately 50 percent of the rural poor population at high risk in the 35 countries analyzed in Africa, but with substantial variations among countries. The share of women among the rural poor at risk is 52 percent or higher in 14 countries, reaching 67 percent in Algeria. In Djibouti and Mauritania, by contrast, men are overrepresented among the rural poor at risk. 

Remarkably, six out of the ten countries worldwide with the highest absolute number of rural poor at risk are in Africa, namely Nigeria (40.2 million people), Uganda (15.4 million people), Mozambique (14.7 million people), Malawi (12.1 million people), Niger (11 million people) and Sudan (7.8 million). 

Malawi, Mozambique and Niger also stand out in terms of the percentage of the overall rural population that is at risk: 72 percent of the rural population in both Malawi and Mozambique are at high risk and 50 percent of Niger’s rural population are at high risk. The situation is also concerning in the Republic of the Congo and South Sudan where more than three-quarters of all rural dwellers are at high risk.

Urban poor in Africa

Among the 35 African countries analyzed in Chilling Prospects 2023, 216.7 million urban dwellers are at high risk due to a lack of access to cooling. This is 4.8 million more people than in 2022 and represents approximately 26.6 percent of urban dwellers at high risk globally. Among the urban poor at high risk, an estimated 54 percent are women. In eight countries – Angola, Benin, the Republic of the Congo, Cote d’Ivoire, Liberia, Mali, Nigeria and Togo – women make up 55 percent or more of the urban poor at risk. This is largely a result of an over-representation of women in urban slums in these and 13 other countries analyzed. In poor informal settlements, women face higher vulnerability to heat than their male counterparts due to intersecting disparities such as a lack of essential services, including safe water and sanitation, higher care burdens in often crowded and poorly built homes, and the higher likelihood of working in low-paid, strenuous and exploitative jobs.  

Nigeria and Angola have the highest number of urban poor, with 74.7 million and 20.3 million people respectively, each increasing by approximately one million in the 2023 analysis compared to 2022. Nigeria and Angola are also among the top 10 countries worldwide with the most urban poor at high risk due to a lack of access to cooling. As well as having large populations of rural dwellers at high risk, Mozambique, Sudan and Uganda each have more than 10 million urban dwellers at high risk. Notably, Algeria saw a 7 percent reduction in its urban population at high risk in 2023 compared to 2022. On the other hand, Djibouti saw a 7 percent increase – the highest among African countries analyzed over the same period. 

Figure: The urban poor in Africa (2023)

Lower-middle-income population in Africa

In Africa, the lower-middle-income population at medium risk due to a lack of access to cooling increased by 3.7 percent from 439.0 million in 2022 to 455.3 million in 2023. This includes approximately 48 percent women and 52 percent men. Nigeria and Egypt remain home to the largest populations at medium risk, with 98.1 million and 93.4 million people respectively, adding 4.7 million and 2.5 million people compared to 2022, respectively. Additional countries in Africa with over 20 million people among the lower-middle-income population remain Algeria (25.1 million), Morocco (20.2 million) and Sudan (25 million).

The largest relative increase of medium-risk populations between 2022 and 2023 was in the Republic of the Congo where the middle-income population grew by 17 percent, however, the total proportion of the lower-middle-income population across the whole population remains low at 14 percent. Men represent 51 percent or more of the population at medium risk in 14 of the countries analyzed, reflecting a higher share of women among the poor at high risk.  

Middle-income population in Africa

Among African countries in the Chilling Prospects assessment, the middle-income population at low risk is 70 million people in the 2023 analysis, which is just 7.3 percent of the total middle-income population globally. This population saw an overall decrease compared to 2022, but only marginally. Notable shifts include decreases of 38 percent in Sudan, 31 percent in Malawi, and 22 percent in the Republic of the Congo, offset by significant increases in Togo, Mali and Cote d’Ivoire. This population is comprised of a largely equal share of women and men, with women accounting for between 49 percent and 51 percent of the low-risk population in all countries analyzed, except for Namibia (52 percent).  

Figure: Populations at risk in Africa (2019–23)

Asia and the Middle East

Within the 27 countries in Asia and the Middle East assessed in the Chilling Prospects 2023 analysis, there are 679.8 million people at high risk due to a lack of access to cooling, a decrease of 11 percent compared to 2022. Overall, the region accounts for almost 47 percent of those at high risk globally. 

This figure is comprised of approximately 54 percent women and 46 percent men.  Among the countries assessed in Asia and the Middle East, India has the largest number of people at high risk, with 309.2 million among the rural and urban poor, including 55 percent women. 

Furthermore, there are 2.31 billion people at medium risk among the lower-middle-income population in Asia and the Middle East, a figure that increased marginally in the 2023 analysis, by almost 6 million people, compared to 2022. This number is comprised of approximately 48 percent women and 52 percent men. An additional 752.7 million people are among the middle-income population at low risk due to a lack of  access to cooling in Asia and the Middle East, 49 percent of them women and 51 percent men. This group experienced growth of approximately 55.1 million people, or 7.9 percent compared to 2022. 

Table: Access to cooling risk in Asia and the Middle East (2022–23)

Rural poor in Asia and the Middle East

Approximately 143.1 million rural dwellers in the 27 Asian and Middle Eastern countries included in the analysis are at high risk due to a lack of access to cooling, a 13.8 percent reduction compared to 2022, or approximately 22.8 million people. Of this figure, 53 percent are women and 47 percent are men. Most of this reduction occurred in India where there are now 16.9 million less rural poor at risk, a decrease of 15 percent. However, India is still home to the largest population of rural poor at risk with 93.3 million people. Yemen (66 percent) and Timor-Leste (24 percent), have the highest proportion of rural dwellers at risk as a proportion of the total rural population. Iran and Turkmenistan have the largest proportion of women among the rural poor at risk, with 63 percent and 68 percent respectively. 

Urban poor in Asia and the Middle East

536.7 million urban dwellers are at high risk due to a lack of access to cooling across countries assessed in Asia and the Middle East, 54 percent of them women and 46 percent men. This is approximately 3.4 million less people than in 2022, representing a marginal decrease of approximately 0.6 percent.  Significant changes were observed in the Syrian Arab Republic, which saw its urban poor population increase dramatically to approximately 7.8 million people, while Sri Lanka saw a significant decrease of 14 percent. Among this group, nine countries have urban poor populations that represent over 30 percent of all urban residents; in Yemen 74 percent of all urban residents are at high risk.  

Figure: Countries in Asia and the Middle East with over 30 percent of overall urban populations at high risk (2023)

Lower-middle-income population in Asia and the Middle East

Countries assessed in Asia and the Middle East account for 79.8 percent of the global total for the lower-middle-income population at medium risk, representing 2.31 billion people. This number comprises approximately 48 percent women and 52 percent men, a distribution that reflects the higher concentration of women among the rural and urban poor at high risk. While the total lower-middle-income population in this region decreased only marginally by 5.9 million compared to 2022, high temperatures and the number of people in the region with growing purchasing power point to the need to account for the full spectrum of cooling demand across energy systems planning.

The most significant changes of lower-middle-income populations are seen in China, which reduced its lower-middle- income population by almost 39 million  people and in India, where this population grew by 21.8 million. The Syrian Arab Republic, Myanmar and Yemen are home to the largest share of men among the medium-risk populations, between 54 percent and 60 percent. 

Middle-income population in Asia and the Middle East

In Asia and the Middle East, countries assessed in the Chilling Prospects analysis account for 78.5 percent of the global middle-income population, with the population in the region growing by 55.1 million people between 2022 and the 2023 analysis, from 697.6 million to 752.7 million. This population is comprised of 54 percent women and 46 percent men.  In addition to significant increases in China and India of 37.8 million and 8.7 million people respectively, Myanmar’s middle-income population increased substantively by almost 900,000 people, or 14 percent compared to 2022.  

In Bangladesh, the middle-income population also increased substantially, by 26 percent, but it has not yet seen a return to pre-pandemic levels when this group was approximately 10.5 million compared to 6.5 million in the 2023 analysis. Women represent 52 percent or more of the population at low risk in eight of the Asian countries analyzed, while men are significantly overrepresented in Jordan (53 percent).  

Figure: Populations at risk in Asia and the Middle East (2019–23)