Chilling Prospects 2022: Urban land-use and heat analysis in major cities of the Critical 9 countries

2015: 10,173,000
2019: 10,639,000
Present: 11,028,848


Source: Climate Change Knowledge Portal, The World Bank Group, 2022

Between 2015 and 2019, Jakarta increased its built-up area by 0.87 square kilometers at the expense of 0.25 square kilometers of herbaceous vegetation, 0.19 square kilometers of cultivated and managed vegetation, and 0.1 square kilometers each of bare/sparse vegetation and water bodies. This process also included the removal of 0.14 square kilometers of open forest that would have had a passive cooling effect on urban areas.

These changes were driven by increasing urbanization, but in combination with a growing number of days above 25°C annually, are likely to exacerbate the UHIE in the city. Even though Jakarta is not projected to have many days with dangerous heat (above 35°C), this trend will lead to increased cooling needs that could dramatically increase energy demand if met with inefficient, active cooling technologies. An expansion of green urban areas through land-use planning would help reverse these losses and reduce heat stress felt by residents on high-temperature days.

Karachi, Pakistan

2015: 14,289,000
2019: 15,741,000
Present: 16,730,070


Source: Climate Change Knowledge Portal, The World Bank Group, 2022

Between 2015 and 2019, Karachi gained 6.63 square kilometers of built-up area at the expense of 1.82 square kilometers of shrubs, 0.18 square kilometers of herbaceous vegetation, 0.31 square kilometers of cultivated and managed vegetation, 3.6 square kilometers of bare or sparse vegetation, and 0.74 square kilometers of open forest.

Karachi made significant changes to its land-use patterns between 2015 and 2019, which has implications for food safety, agricultural production and thermal comfort. While the built-up area increased by 6.63 square kilometers, land used for cultivating produce grew by a significantly larger amount, 213 square kilometers. This provides the city with resources to grow local produce, benefitting residents and farmers through better food security and enhanced agricultural incomes, though there is a need for an expansion of the local cold chain to reduce potential post-harvest losses.

With Karachi set to experience a high number of days with dangerous heat between April and October every year, further urban planning efforts to reduce the UHIE and reliance on inefficient, mechanical cooling would especially benefit the most vulnerable urban dwellers.

Lagos, Nigeria

2015: 12,239,000
2019: 13,904,000
Present: 15,236,259


Source: Climate Change Knowledge Portal, The World Bank Group, 2022

Between 2015 and 2019, Lagos saw an increase of 0.43 square kilometers of built-up area. This came at the expense of 0.37 square kilometers of herbaceous vegetation, and marginal reductions in cultivated and managed vegetation, bare or sparse vegetation, water bodies and open forest.

Even in the most optimistic scenario, it is likely that there will be an increase in the number of days with dangerous heat (more than 35°C) per year for Lagos. Coupling this with rising sea levels, urbanization processes need to not only factor in human comfort and safety but also increased urban resilience.

Maputo, Mozambique

2015: 1,100,000
2019: 1,104,000
Present: 1,134,096


Source: Climate Change Knowledge Portal, The World Bank Group, 2022

Between 2015 and 2019, Maputo increased its built-up area by 0.3 square kilometers and lost 0.12 square kilometers of herbaceous vegetation, as well as marginal amounts of shrubs, cultivated and managed vegetation, water bodies and open forest.
Mozambique does not have a large urban population — 63 percent of its people still live in rural areas — [8] and this is reflected in the observed land-use changes. But the city is planning for expansion, including through the Maputo Urban Transformation Project. [9]

It is expected to see over four days of dangerous heat (+35°C) annually between September and February, presenting urban planners in Maputo with a unique opportunity to plan early for the increasing effects of heat, for example through natural heat sinks, increased green spaces and improved passive cooling measures.

Mumbai, India

Population

2015: 19,316,000
2019: 20,185,000
Present: 20,876,486


Source: Climate Change Knowledge Portal, The World Bank Group, 2022

Between 2015 and 2019, Mumbai gained 0.9 square kilometers of built-up area at the expense of 0.14 square kilometers of herbaceous vegetation, 0.14 square kilometers of cultivated and managed vegetation, 0.28 square kilometers of closed forest, 0.16 square kilometers of open forest, and lesser amounts from shrubs, bare/sparse vegetation and water bodies.

Each year large segments of India’s population move to Mumbai from rural areas for social, economic and environmental opportunities. This migration has contributed to the expansion of informal settlements, including the Dharavi slum that is now home to more than 1 million people. [10] With projections for at least 15 days per month of dangerous heat between March and June each year, these people will be increasingly vulnerable to a lack of access to cooling.

Heat-action planning, and public cooling centres are among the types of low-cost solutions that can help meet their cooling needs. So too is urban greening, which was prioritized by the Government of Maharashtra in its recent climate change action plan. [11]

Omdurman, Sudan

2015: (Reliable data not available)
2019: (Reliable data not available)
Present: (Reliable data not available)


Source: Climate Change Knowledge Portal, The World Bank Group, 2022

Between 2015 and 2019, Omdurman gained 0.48 square kilometers of built-up area at the expense of bare or sparse vegetation typical to the climate of the region.

The Omdurman-Khartoum region has grown rapidly over the past three decades and is projected to see over 20 days per month of dangerous heat between April and October annually between 2020 and 2039. In addition to heat, increased flooding over the past decade has also created challenges for urban residents. [12] With this in mind, the city has a unique opportunity to use urban planning and expansion processes to mitigate both urban heat and flooding risks at the same time, leveraging its water resources for nature-based urban cooling.

São Paulo, Brazil

2015:20,883,000
2019:21,847,000
Present: 22,374,333


Source: Climate Change Knowledge Portal, The World Bank Group, 2022

Between 2015 and 2019, São Paulo, Brazil increased its built-up area by 2.27 square kilometers and reduced its area of herbaceous vegetation by 1.1 square kilometers and its area of open forest by 1.03 square kilometers. The city also saw small reductions in its areas of cultivated and managed vegetation, bare or sparse vegetation, herbaceous wetland and closed forest.

In São Paulo, rapid urbanization is increasing the number of people living in informal settlements known as favelas. These are typically constructed to a low standard, often by residents themselves, and are often located on wasteland, marshy land, or in flood-prone areas.

The city experiences sustained temperatures above 25°C in the summer months and is also projected to see four days per month of dangerous heat between September and November every year, exposing these residents to significant risks from lack of access to cooling. Targeted efforts to mitigate these risks include land-use planning changes that prioritize green spaces near favelas, and heat-action planning that provides them with public cooling centres on days when temperatures exceed 35°C.

Shanghai, China

2015: 23,482,000
2019: 26,317,000
Present: 28,309,043


Source: Climate Change Knowledge Portal, The World Bank Group, 2022

Between 2015 and 2019, Shanghai increased its built-up area by 8.96 square kilometers with a decrease of 0.78 square kilometers of shrubs, 1.32 square kilometers of herbaceous vegetation, 3.48 square kilometers of cultivated and managed vegetation, 0.16 square kilometers of herbaceous wetland, 0.16 square kilometers of open forest with evergreen broad leaf, and 3.38 square kilometers of open forest.

Shanghai has observed the highest increase in its built-up area among the major cities in the Critical 9 countries. The increase contributes to increased demand for air-conditioning and refrigeration systems, highlighting the need for energy-efficient and climate-friendly technologies. Demand can be expected to be particularly high in July and August, where temperatures are projected to exceed 35°C for three days each month.

For its most vulnerable residents, green spaces, passive cooling, and more vegetation can provide relief while reducing the UHIE and minimizing the energy necessary for cooling needs.

Chilling Prospects 2022

Sustainable cooling for cities

Notes and references

[1] Global Land Cover, Copernicus. Land Cover Viewer (vito.be)
[2] Buchhorn, M. ; Lesiv, M. ; Tsendbazar, N. - E. ; Herold, M. ; Bertels, L. ; Smets, B. Copernicus Global Land Cover Layers — Collection 2. Remote Sensing 2020, 12, Volume 108, 1044. DOI 10.3390/rs12061044
[3] Q-GIS software was used, which is a free and open-source cross-platform GIS software application that supports viewing, editing, and analysis of geospatial data. Discover QGIS
[4] RStudio is an Integrated Development Environment (IDE) for R, a programming language for statistical computing and graphics. About RStudio - RStudio
[5] The U.N. Climate report’s five futures – decoded. Explainer: The U.N. climate report's five futures - decoded | Reuters
[6] Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP). About us | Climate Change Knowledge Portal (worldbank.org)
[7] Ürge-Vorsatz, D., Petrichenko, K., Antal, M., Staniec, M., Labelle, M., Ozden, E., Labzina, E. Best-Practice Policies for Low Energy and Carbon Buildings. A Scenario Analysis. Research report prepared by the Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Policy (3CSEP) for the Global Buildings Performance Network. May 2012.
[8] Rural population – Mozambique, The World Bank, 2022. Link.
[9] Mozambique Receives $100 Million for its Maputo Urban Transformation Project, The World Bank, 2020. Link.
[10] Urbanization in contrasting cities, BBC, 2022. Link.
[11] The Hindu, 18 March 2022, Link.
[12] Andrea Zerboni et. al (2021) The Khartoum-Omdurman conurbation: a growing megacity at the confluence of the Blue and White Nile Rivers, Journal of Maps, 17:4, 227-240, DOI: 10.1080/17445647.2020.1758810

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Editor's pick: From jobs to gender equality – why it’s vital we back energy access skills

Technicians are trained in five solar academies across the country, established by the KYA-Energy Group. The company’s CEO Ketowoglo Yao Azoumah predicts that solar skills could soon become a handy export business for Togo – with technicians and local companies finding employment in neighbouring countries across West Africa.

As women face barriers to entering science, engineering and technology sectors, the agency ensured that half of the engineers delivering the work are women.

When it comes to green skills, government action essential – but politicians must work in partnership with forward thinking enterprises and NGOs, that ensure training specifically tackles social inequality. Here are again, there are shining lights to show us the way forward, bringing energy access and workplace opportunities for women.

Kenya’s Burn Manufacturing produces affordable cookstoves that slash carbon emissions and protect the health of families that use them. 60 percent of their employees are female, and have often broken social barriers to train in jobs normally the preserve of men. This dynamic workforce has pushed the company to become a market leader – just a few weeks ago, Burn sold their millionth stove.

Training for green jobs can also spread powerful digital skills. Frontier Markets’ Solar Sahelis are rural women entrepreneurs selling clean energy goods and other products in their communities. An e-commerce app is now central to the organisation’s business model, bringing the sahelis new tech skills to complement their formidable community knowledge and sales abilities.

Huge barriers remain

While these success stories are worth celebrating, they are the exception rather than the rule. In recent years the International Renewable Energy Agency has identified a global need for better public-private partnerships, and action to remedy huge inequalities in access to training and employment among low-income communities and other marginalised groups, especially women. The organisation also calls for national green skills policies, efforts to map training needs, and new channels to connect employers with potential employees.

These concerns have spurred the launch of the 2021 Ashden Award for Energy Access Skills. We are on the hunt for outstanding examples of inclusive and barrier-breaking skills development. The winner will receive a £20,000 grant, while all finalists are given marketing and business support, and access to Ashden’s network of funders, investors and expert partners. Ashden will also fund a powerful promotional film about the winner’s work. Entry is free, and applications close on 17 March 2021.

This week jobs and training are on the agenda at the timely Sustainable Energy for All Youth Summit. Green skills are relevant to every age group, but of particular concern for young people, who have done so much for all of us by raising their voices in support of climate action. Now we can support them by ensuring energy access skills are available to all, and delivered as powerfully as possible.

Discover more about the 2021 Ashden Awards

Follow the Youth Summit at #YouthLeadSDG7

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Togo Kenya India

Goal 7 target

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Partner

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Programme

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Agnisumukh’s innovations support shift towards clean cooking in India

Highlights

Agnisumukh, which was launched in 2014 in India, produces innovative gas burners that are flameless, smokeless, noiseless and produce uniform heat.

Advantages: saves over 30% fuel, high thermal efficiency of 69%, saves over 50% water and detergents, preserves nutrition, zero-carbon soot emission, lower ambient heat in the kitchen.

Used in about 500 commercial kitchens throughout India, the company estimates the burners have helped save 7,337 tons of carbon, 1,715,850 litres of water and 469,201 trees.

The world will need to make a major push to provide 2.8 billion people with clean cooking solutions by 2030. To meet this challenge, new technologies and fuels will need to be developed and deployed that are cost-effective, have reduced carbon footprints and minimize people’s exposure to harmful fumes.

Hari Rao and his Bangalore-based company, Agnisumukh, are devoted to this type of cooking solution. In 2006, Rao, a cooking enthusiast and someone who loves experimenting with Indian cuisine, first identified a lack of innovation in cooking technologies. Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) burners were used extensively in domestic and commercial kitchens in India and Asia.

The problem that Rao saw in this technology was that blue flame commercial gas burners create soot and have significant heat loss, making them inefficient in terms of the amount of fuel used to cook. On top of that, keeping pots and pans clean and the maintenance of burners and exhaust systems proved to be challenging.

Over the years, Rao’s research would lead to smokeless, residue-free, noiseless and flameless industrial stoves that are more economical to use and present lower health risks to users. In 2014, he founded Agnisumukh, which means “the good face of fire.” Agnisumukh manufactures commercial kitchen equipment ranging from clean cookstoves to steam boilers driven by innovative, energy-efficient radiant heat gas burner systems.

“As a natural property, flame and heat tend to accumulate at the centre. We have innovated a mechanism in gas burners that regulates this natural tendency and spreads the flame evenly as a thin layer by turning into uniform radiant heat,” says Rao.

Agnisumukh’s energy-efficient burner system, driven by LPG, natural gas or biogas, emits flameless horizontal radiant heat at a low gas pressure without producing any carbon soot.

The company says that the cookstoves help users save approximately 30 percent in fuel, reducing overall demand for LPG, natural gas or biogas. This efficiency has led to a carbon savings of approximately 7,337 tons based on its current customer base. Meanwhile, Agnisumukh’s stoves provide an alternative to traditional cooking methods like burning firewood. Therefore, the company estimates that its sales to date have saved 469,201 of trees. Because they produce zero soot, this also saves 1,715,850 litres of water normally required for cleaning.

Today, Agnisumukh stoves are used by more than 100 clients in about 500 kitchens throughout India. Its clients include major hotel and restaurant chains, hospitals, and even the kitchens of the President of India and the Prime Minister’s Office.

Over the years, the company has won many prizes for its innovations. Rao says that the financial prize provided by this year’s Energy Access Booster award will help the company pursue further R&D efforts to improve current products and develop new ones. The company recently entered a licensing agreement with the Indian Institute of Technology, Guwahati to market the institute’s Porous Radiant Burner technology. The Energy Access Booster Award will help Agnisumukh commercialize this technology and expand its share in the commercial kitchen market.

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Programme

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Grassroots Energy turns waste into progress on multiple Sustainable Development Goals in India

Highlights

Grassroots Energy’s mission is to use technologies to end energy poverty and enable soil regeneration by processing waste through small-scale “modules” that enrich biogas to bioCNG.

Advantages: mitigates methane emissions from decomposing agricultural waste; locally produced clean fuel alternative to LPG helps alleviate lack of clean cooking access.

Company offers “circularity” by using residues leftover from biogas production to produce organic fertilizers that can replace chemical fertilizers, supporting local soil regeneration.

Mateen Abdul knows that a shift towards a “circular economy”— an economic system focused on eliminating waste and reusing resources — is integral towards achieving the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Recognizing the importance that governments and the private sector are now placing on this concept of circularity, Abdul has built a waste-to-energy business that supports progress against multiple SDGs. He is the CEO and Co-Founder of Grassroots Energy, which operates in India and has a mission to use technologies to end energy poverty and enable soil-regeneration.

“We started Grassroots Energy with the intention to solve the energy access problem with a slightly different approach,” Abdul says. “We realized that in many parts of the world where energy access is a challenge, there is widely available agriculture or farm residue that is not fully utilized and actually poses an environmental threat.”

Founded in 2016, the company has developed a broad business model that uses multiple technologies to produce and distribute biogas, from agricultural and farm waste that can be used for electricity generation and clean cooking. While the company was originally focused on biogas-to-electricity, in 2018, it shifted towards developing a solution that would help the approximately 3 billion people worldwide who lack clean fuels or technologies for cooking.

Grassroots Energy has developed a system for processing waste through small-scale “modules” that enrich biogas to bioCNG. These modules involve a biogas digester and enrichment system, which makes the processed gas suitable for consumer use. The company has also developed technology for storing the gas in cylinders rather than piping the gas into a grid, something that doesn’t exist in many remote communities.

“We believe we are one of very few organizations worldwide working in the bioCNG [renewable natural gas] space focused on a distributed model,” Abdul says. “The technology exists elsewhere but at large-scale. We are bringing down the scale so that it can be deployed in wider, smaller communities.”

Abdul claims the system offers multiple social, economic and environmental benefits that have been proven through an initial pilot operation. Firstly, it mitigates methane emissions from decomposing agricultural waste, which is a major contributor to global emissions. The system supports overall waste remediation in communities by collecting vast amounts of agricultural byproducts that can pose health risks to people through exposure. By setting up distributed, small-scale operations, Grassroots Energy creates up to 50 local jobs for waste collection, biogas module operations, and fertilizer distribution.

Meanwhile, Grassroots Energy offers a clean fuel alternative to people in the immediate vicinity, with each module providing fuel to 15 families, enabling them to step out of energy poverty. Abdul compares his company’s biogas to commonly used LPG, emphasizing that bioCNG is a cleaner and lower-carbon fuel. Locally produced and distributed bioCNG has the advantage of not relying on the complex logistic networks and not being susceptible to major price fluctuations associated with LPG.

The most obvious example of how the company provides “circularity” is in using residues left behind from the biogas purification process to produce organic fertilizers, which are then sold to farmers as an alternative to chemical fertilizers. Replacement of chemical fertilizers with organic fertilizers enhances the nutrients in the soil, leading to reduced costs and higher incomes for farmers.

Offering solutions to multiple SDGs, including those related to energy access (SDG7), climate action (SDG13), land protection (SDG15), among others, it is easy to see why Grassroots Energy was recently awarded an Energy Access Booster award.

In addition to a financial contribution to the company, Grassroots Energy will receive technical and advisory support from partners involved in the Energy Access Booster, which Abdul says he is particularly excited about.

“The biggest value add is the technical support, which will help us to finetune our product and create a very strong offering to the market,” he says. “The partners bring strong networks and expertise in the African market, which is somewhere we would like to expand to in the next two to three years. So, the Energy Access Booster can help us make this jump.”

Following the success of its pilot, Grassroots Energy plans to have its first full-scale bioCNG installation operationalized in Q3 2020. The company’s goal is to have 50 installations operationalized in the next three years, producing 20,000 cubic metres of bioCNG.

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