India is home to 309.2 million people at high risk due to a lack of access to cooling. Mumbai, the most heavily populated city in the country, has undergone rapid urbanization, converting natural land cover with soil, water and vegetation into urban paved areas. Consequently, it has developed a pronounced urban heat island effect (UHIE).

Measured land surface temperatures in Mumbai demonstrate that areas with low built-up density experience temperatures around 28°C, whereas high built-up urban areas exhibit significantly higher temperatures of approximately 34°C. In contrast, on the city's outskirts, where vegetation density and water coverage are more abundant, temperatures range from 21°C to 23°C. [1] Discover more urban land use and heat analysis for Mumbai here and in the WRI Working Paper Urban Blue-Green Conundrum: A 10-City Study on the Impacts of Urbanization on Natural Infrastructure in India. 

The impact of Mumbai’s UHIE was particularly noticeable in the suburb of Andheri East, specifically at the Marol Co-op Industrial Estate, following the construction of a metro line. Before the metro’s construction in 2005 and 2010, average temperatures recorded were 29.27°C and 33.4°C, respectively. However, after the construction, the average temperature rose to 38.8°C. [2]

In response to this, the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) and Marol Co-op Industrial Estate initiated the development of a 3.2 acre Urban Forest and Nature Conservancy Park in Marol along the Mithi river to increase green cover in this heat-stressed part of Mumbai. On World Environment Day in June 2023, the BMC carried out a tree plantation drive supporting this initiative. [3]

The Chilling Prospects 2023 analysis shows that in India, over 215 million people in urban settings are currently estimated to be at high risk due to a lack of access to cooling services, including over 121 million women living in poor urban areas and urban slums. The Mahila Housing Trust (MHT) is empowering women to build climate resilience in slums by becoming Climate Saathis (friends in Hindi). The model builds upon the notion that if the urban poor are provided with the necessary knowledge, tools and leadership skills, they will be able to devise and implement climate-resilient technologies solutions locally.  

Through the Climate Saathis project, women are trained to be energy auditors who encourage households to switch to more energy-efficient lighting, fans and cooling devices and become grassroots-level micro-entrepreneurs, forming a women-led distribution network of efficient and off-grid products. The programme also focuses on educating participants about various aspects of energy, including understanding electricity bills, calculating energy consumption, and identifying sources of energy wastage. Women also encourage households to use building materials and technologies that reduce heat. Passive cooling solutions such as white roofs and improved roofs can reduce home temperatures by up to 6°C. 

According to Chilling Prospects 2023 analysis, Bangladesh is home to 20.7 million women and 16.5 million men at high risk due to lack of access to cooling services. Women make up as much as 57 percent of the urban poor at high risk in the country as a result of their over-representation in urban slums.

Bangladesh regularly experiences some of the highest maximum temperatures registered in Asia and it is expected to see an increase of up to 3.6°C under a high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario (RCP8.5) by the end of the century. With more severe and frequent heatwaves, it is predicted that Bangladesh will suffer economic losses and occupational health risks in some sectors, particularly in the ready-made garment (RMG) industry. By 2030, Bangladesh is expected to lose 4.84 percent of working hours due to heat stress – the equivalent of 3.833 million full-time jobs.  

The RMG industry in Bangladesh is a strong driver of economic growth and female employment. Some of the world's biggest fashion brands operate in Bangladesh, representing around 25 percent of the total garment workforce worldwide, the second-largest clothing manufacturer after China. In 2019, the industry accounted for about 83 percent of the country’s export earnings and represented 12-15 percent of its GDP. According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, there are 7,727 establishments in the country, and female workers represent at least 60 percent of the workforce in this industry.  

Cambodia has a rapidly growing economy and significant cooling needs. As in other parts of the world, temperatures are rising, with the capital of Phnom Penh experiencing 40°C in April 2023. The increasing incidence of extreme heat will affect not only people’s health and safety, but also key economic sectors such as agriculture, textiles, tourism and construction. Cambodia’s GDP increased 2.5 times between 2010 and 2020, when it reached approximately USD 25.9 billion. Still, it is currently estimated that GDP loss due to extreme heat is between USD 1.12 and USD 1.26 billion, or approximately 4-5 percent of GDP (2020) annually.  

In response to the challenge of meeting growing cooling needs, Cambodia released its National Cooling Action Plan (NCAP) in March 2023, developed in collaboration with the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) and with support from the Alliance for an Energy Efficient Economy (AEEE) and Sustainable Energy for All (SEforALL). The plan leveraged the National Cooling Action Plan Methodology developed by the partners of the Cool Coalition to deliver a comprehensive framework to address cooling needs holistically and systematically, and has been recognized as a leading example of policy progress in the region.  

Reflections on five years of the Kigali Amendment by the Building Energy Research Center of Tsinghua University, China See all Cooling for All partner stories Explore the full report

China’s National Green Cooling Action Plan  

In June 2019, China unveiled its first national Green Cooling Action Plan (GCAP), an integrated master plan with new energy efficiency and market penetration targets for air conditioners and other cooling products, driving improvements in cooling efficiency and the transition to green refrigerants. The plan was the result of an 18-month-long joint effort between key government agencies, including seven ministries, and was led by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), in collaboration with research institutes, industry associations and civil society. 

The GCAP sets clear targets for China's cooling sector. By 2030, the energy efficiency of major cooling products should increase by over 25 percent; the market share of green and efficient cooling products should increase by 40 percent; and the energy efficiency of large public buildings should increase by 30 percent compared to 2022 levels, achieving annual electricity savings of 400 billion kWh combined. Actions to achieve these targets include upgrading energy-efficiency standards for air-conditioning and refrigeration; increasing the supply of green cooling products; promoting cooling-efficiency retrofits; and deepening international cooperation. Following the launch of the GCAP, cooling retrofit projects were also included in the subsidy programme of China’s Special Fund for Ecological Civilization Construction. 

Upgraded energy performance standards to accelerate market shift  

After the launch of the GCAP, and in synergy with the implementation of the Kigali Amendment, China upgraded the minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) for room air conditioners (RACs) and multi-connected air-conditioning (heat pump) units with variable refrigerant flow (VRF), the two dominant air-conditioning products for the residential and commercial sectors.  

The revised standard for RACs merged requirements for fixed- and variable-frequency air conditioners, which accelerated the market transition toward variable-speed air conditioners. Today, fixed-frequency air conditioners account for only 2 percent of the domestic market (Figure 1a). Positive trends were also seen in the use of refrigerants, with the market shifting quickly away from the use of R-22 and R-410a refrigerants, and R-32 technology dominating about 80 percent of total refrigerant sales in 2021 (Figure 1b). 

Figure 1a: Domestic sales % of RAC by fixed/variable frequency ACs

Figure 1b: Domestic sales % of RAC by refrigerant type

In October 2021, the revision of MEPS for multi-connected air-conditioning units led to an overall energy-efficiency improvement of 40.5 percent compared to 2008 figures. The testing method was also upgraded with a more rigorous annual performance factor (APF). Overall, the revision is expected to generate over 278 billion kWh in energy savings by 2030. 

Further opportunities for efficient technologies  

Promoting better passive building design to reduce cooling demand  

Passive building design takes optimal advantage of natural resources, including light, ventilation, shading and cooling, to create an optimum indoor environment and reduce energy demand. Well-designed natural ventilation systems save 13 to 44 kWh/m2 of cooling net energy per year. For instance, one office building in Shenzhen that has incorporated passive design has reduced the time that air-conditioning is in use by 40 percent compared with other local office buildings, while achieving the same level of indoor thermal comfort. 

Meeting end users’ cooling demands with decentralized cooling systems  

In the past two decades, surveys on the energy consumption of buildings found that among the main drivers of variation in buildings’ energy consumption are: i) the type of cooling system used; and ii) occupant behaviour patterns. Analysis showed that as much as 71 percent of the total operating time of VRF systems during one cooling season is characterized by only one unit in operation (Figure 2). In this context, centralized air-conditioning systems, provide full-time and full-space service regardless of the occupancy state of each room. Decentralized cooling systems, on the other hand, can provide a flexible, controllable part-time and part-space service, by switching off devices when the space is empty. Occupant energy usage patterns lead to further variation in energy consumption: while for most users energy consumption per unit area is below 30kWh/m2, the maximum usage can reach 89kWh/m2. 

Figure 2: Distribution of the number of operating indoor units and energy consumption 

Data source: Gree analysis in 2,776 residential VRF systems (2020)

Increasing energy efficiency of cooling systems  

High-efficiency cooling systems require that: i) the rated coefficient of performance (COP) of cooling devices is as high as possible; and ii) the capacity of cooling devices is adequately combined so that they operate in the high-efficiency zone at different load levels. In this context, it is important to further develop cooling equipment that can operate with high efficiency even at partial load. For instance, magnetic levitation chillers can increase cooling energy efficiency over full range, especially on a low load ratio, compared to traditional centrifugal chillers (Figure 3). 

Figure 3: COP of chillers under different load ratio

Source: Manufacturer's test results (Cooling water inlet 30℃, chilled water outlet 7℃) 

A newly developed compressor technology for air conditioners shows significant potential to solve the efficiency problem at partial load. Combining a large- and a small-volume cylinder operating in parallel, this compressor greatly improves efficiency at load below 30 percent, even surpassing that of mono-split units.  

New, ultra-efficient air conditioners also combine smart evaporative cooling ventilation with photovoltaic panels, which could reduce the climate impact of air-conditioning1 by more than 85 percent. 

Replacing refrigerants with zero GWP cooling technology  

Efforts to replace refrigerants in line with the Kigali Amendment currently tend to focus on deploying refrigerants with low global warming potential (GWP), zero ozone depletion potential (ODP) and high efficiency. Air conditioners are typically among the first categories of equipment that are targeted by policymakers in this area. However, solutions such as direct and indirect evaporative cooling technologies provide valid alternatives to mechanical air-conditioning, particularly for dry regions. Indirect evaporative cooling solutions consume electricity only for pumps and fan operation and do not use any refrigerant gas. Test data suggest that this solution could save up to 40 percent of energy use compared with traditional vapour compression air-conditioning systems.  

Meet our Global Panel on Access to Cooling member from the Building Energy Research Center of Tsinghua University

Reflections on five years of the Kigali Amendment by the Alliance for an Energy Efficient Economy (AEEE) See all Cooling for All partner stories Explore the full report

Climate change-induced warming trends, population growth and rapid urbanization are driving an unprecedented increase in the global demand for cooling across sectors, including thermal comfort in buildings, food supply chains, storage and transfer of medical products, transport of people, and industrial processes. This growth in cooling is linked with the socioeconomic progress of countries as they work to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). India currently has low access to cooling, but its economic progress, coupled with global warming trends, will drive an eight-times increase in the demand for cooling in the next two decades. While India’s projected cooling growth is in step with its development needs, this growth, under a business-as-usual scenario, will strain existing power systems and have an adverse impact on the environment.  

Reflections on five years of the Kigali Amendment by the World Bank Group See all Cooling for All partner stories Explore the full report

West Bengal produces a lot of fruits, vegetables and fish, and has well-connected networks of highways and railways. However, transport accounts for 2.6 million tonnes of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the state. In addition, inefficiencies and a lack of transport connectivity adversely affect the state’s economy, increase congestion and contribute to post-harvest losses of temperature-sensitive goods. Waterways have the potential to support a multi-modal cold chain transportation network with reduced emissions, environmental impact, fuel usage and costs.

Potential of inland waterways

Improving the inland waterways infrastructure

To address this, the Government of India, the Government of West Bengal and the World Bank signed a USD 105 million project to improve inland waterway (IW) infrastructure and spatial planning in Kolkata in January 2021. To complement this lending project, the World Bank with funding from the UK’s Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) contracted KPMG India and the International Institute of Refrigeration (IIR) to undertake a pilot study on IW integration in the West Bengal Cold Chain to reduce congestion, GHG emissions and hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerant usage.  

The initial baseline assessment of the project reviewed the demand and emissions of temperature-sensitive goods such as fruits, vegetables and fish in West Bengal across the post-harvest, primary-transport, cold-storage and distribution segments of the cold chain. The study, conducted by KPMG India and IRR under the World Bank, found that in 2020, the total Temperature Controlled Logistics (TCL) demand was 6.28 million tonnes, accounting for 1.98 million MWh of energy consumption and over 620,000 tonnes of CO2 emissions annually.  

A key driver of the demand arises from the production and transportation of temperature-sensitive goods. About 65-70 percent of freight in India is transported by road and the transportation of fruits and vegetables to and from Kolkata wholesale markets and mandis primarily takes place in non-refrigerated trucks. This results in food spoiling, reduced shelf life and post-harvest losses to the tune of 10-15 percent. The global footprint of food loss and waste excluding emissions from land-use change is 3.3 gigatonnes of GHG, corresponding to about 7 percent of total GHG emissions. There is a need for a new cold chain infrastructure for most products.  

An efficient, well connected cold chain in West Bengal has the potential to significantly reduce post-harvest losses

The Government of India has shown a keen interest in IWs as a means of diversifying and improving the transport modal mix, which could also reduce post-harvest losses while reducing the negative environmental impact and cost of meeting the cold chain demand. IW transport has an environmental impact which is seven times less than roadways, and for every tonne-Km transported on water, the GHG emission is estimated to be 50 percent of that by road. Additionally, IW is a fuel-efficient mode of transport (105 tonne/km with one litre of fuel), has a lower capital cost (about 5–10 percent of that of a four-lane highway/ railway), and maintenance costs 20 percent lower than roads. In order to understand the feasibility of transporting temperature-sensitive goods on waterways, the study looked at the potential impact of diverting traffic to IW.

Integrating inland waterways with RoRo cargo services

In 2026, there is the potential to divert around 30,556 tonnes of traffic to IW while around 233,409 tonnes could potentially be diverted via roll-on roll-off (RoRo) cargo service. In 2035, around 210,419 tonnes could be diverted to IW and around 1,084,346 tonnes could be diverted to RoRo. With the integration of IW and RoRo services, there is the potential for GHG emissions savings of around 10 percent and 27 percent in 2026 and 2035, respectively. In addition, with the adoption of newer technologies, fisheries could save up to 77 percent of their energy consumption by 2030 and fruits and vegetables could save up to 77 percent. Cold storage for potatoes could save up to 75 percent by shifting to improved technologies. The fruit and vegetable value chain could save about 38 percent in post-harvest refrigeration but could save up to 77 percent in transportation. The dairy value chain could save 83 percent of its energy demand by the end of 2030.