Integrated Electrification Pathways for Universal Access to Electricity: A Primer
Results-Based Financing and Competitive Support Approaches for Mini-Grids
Schneider Electric
Electrification: Planning Progress
Quick Facts
Almost 30 Sub-Saharan African countries, of which 11 are high- impact countries, are in the process of completing their Action Agendas.
Four countries in Latin America and the Caribbean and six countries in the Asia-Pacific Region are in the process of developing Action Agendas. These include Bangladesh and Myanmar, two high-impact countries for electrification.
13 of 20 high-impact countries have an Investment Prospectus planned, in development or finalized.
Context
- SEforALL has three regional hubs in Africa, Asia-Pacific and Latin America and the Caribbean which help countries to realize the SEforALL objectives.
- Action Agendas lay out a nationally tailored approach to deliver SEforALL objectives.
- Investment Prospectuses identify a pipeline of investment projects and programs for financing that help meet SEforALL objectives.
| Example of National Targets for Energy Access, Published Action Agendas in Sub-Saharan Africa | ||
|---|---|---|
| High-impact Country | 2030 Access target – Electricity | 2030 Access target – Clean Cooking |
| Angola | 100% | 100% |
| Kenya | 100% by 2022 | 100% |
| Nigeria | 90% | 80% |
| Tanzania | >75% | >75% |
| Uganda | >98% | >99% |
NOTES: 1. Action Agendas lay out a nationally tailored approach to deliver SEforALL objectives.
2. Investment Prospectuses identify pipelines of investment projects and programs for financing.
3. The dotted line represents approximately the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir by India and Pakistan. The final status of Jammu and Kashmir has not yet been agreed upon by the parties.
4. These maps were produced by SEforALL. They are based on the UN Map of the World, which can be found here: http://www.un.org/Depts/Cartographic/map/profile/world.pdf. The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other information shown on these maps do not imply, on the part of SEforALL, any judgment on the legal status of any territory or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.
SOURCE: Sustainable Energy for All.
Electrification: RISE Indicators for Energy Access
Quick Facts
Of the high-impact countries, only five provide widespread policy support for energy access. These include Bangladesh, India, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
70 percent of Africa’s least electrified nations—with access rates below 20 percent—have barely begun to establish an enabling environment for access.
Electrification plans that help define boundaries between utility and decentralized solutions are generally lacking. 45 percent of high-impact countries do not have electrification plans yet.
In the Asia Pacific region, the policy framework for access to electricity is more favorable and this is reflected in access rates of 90.3 percent in 2014 compared to 37 percent in Sub- Saharan Africa. Countries in the Asia Pacific region score an average of 90 percent on the RISE policy environment indicating that most elements of a strong policy framework are in place, in contrast to 35 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Context
- Regulatory Indicators for Sustainable Energy (RISE) offers policy makers and investors detailed country-level insights on the policy and regulatory environment for sustainable energy across 111 countries globally.
- The top RISE scorers in energy access generally do well across all three possible energy supply solutions— grids, mini- grids and stand-alone systems— suggesting they are being pursued not as substitutes but as complements as part of comprehensive national energy access strategies.
- High scorers for RISE on access tend to do well across policies for grids, mini-grids, and stand-alone systems suggesting efforts are complementary. Countries like India and Bangladesh are emerging as leaders with an innovative mix of grid and off-grid solutions.
- Utilities play an important role in improving access but RISE shows that many utilities in the developing world are not creditworthy and struggle to make the investments needed to expand electricity networks to the unserved. Dedicated government budget lines to support electrification are often missing and improvements are needed in utility transparency and monitoring. This includes the collection, reporting to regulators and public availability of key information about utility financial and technical performance that can provide a basis for investors and developers to assess investment opportunities. By monitoring the reliability of electricity services utilities can also ensure the high operating efficiency and financial viability of their core business.
- The full cost of connecting to the grid, which varies from US$22 in Bangladesh to US$500 in several Sub-Saharan African countries, exceeds US$100 in the vast majority of countries. The biggest driver of connection costs is capital investment for buying materials, including poles, cables, and transformers. Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest fees, in most cases because customers have to pay for electrical equipment (circuit breakers, meters, cables).
NOTES: 1. No data available for Korea, DPR.
2. Regulatory Indicators for Sustainable Energy (RISE) is a suite of indicators that assesses the legal and regulatory environment for investment in sustainable energy. 3. Doing Business is a relative ranking of 190 economies based on the regulatory environment. It does this by sorting the aggregate scores of 11 topics, each consisting of several indicators, giving equal weight to each topic.
SOURCES: Regulatory Indicators for Sustainable Energy (RISE), World Bank Group, 2017.
“Doing Business 2017: Equal Opportunity for All”, shttp://www.doingbusiness.org/rankings, 2017.
Data extracted from http://rise.esmap.org/ on 06/23/2017. World Development Indicators, World Bank Group, 2014.
Data extracted from http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?end=2014&name_desc=false&view=chart on 06/20/2017.
Electrification: RISE Regulatory Environment
Quick Facts
Of the high-impact countries, only five provide widespread policy support for energy access. These include Bangladesh, India, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
Sub-Saharan Africa—the least electrified region with over 600 million people without electricity—has one of the least developed policy environments to support energy access. Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Sudan are three of the most populous energy deficit countries, with a total unserved population of 116 million people.
Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda have put in place enabling policy and regulatory environments for energy access in the Sub-Saharan African region. Kenya aims to achieve universal access by 2020, and is focused on grid electrification. Attractive investment incentives and mini-grid standards have encouraged private sector engagement. Last mile connectivity (grid densification program) is funded through connection fee subsidies.
India aims for universal access by 2019. Its electrification plan is regularly updated and monitored by the Rural Electrification Corporation Ltd. Central and the State Governments provide capital subsidies of up to 90 percent for grid extension, support connection fees, and set performance standards. The Remote Village Electrification Programme promotes mini-grids and supports capital costs for solar photovoltaic system facilities. Technical and quality standards are in place for mini-grids and stand-alone systems.
Context
- Regulatory Indicators for Sustainable Energy (RISE) offers policy makers and investors detailed country-level insights on the policy and regulatory environment for sustainable energy across 111 countries globally.
- A number of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Asia Pacific region received a high score for energy access on RISE but are not high-impact countries for electrification.
- RISE shows that policy frameworks for access are lagging behind, especially in populous countries of Sub-Saharan Africa and those with particularly low electrification rates.
- The top RISE scorers in energy access do well across all three possible energy supply solutions— grids, mini-grids, and stand-alone systems— suggesting they are being pursued not as substitutes but as complements. Countries in South Asia—specifically India and Bangladesh—are emerging as leaders in the access agenda with an innovative mix of grid and off-grid solutions.
NOTES: 1. Regulatory Indicators for Sustainable Energy (RISE) is a suite of indicators that assesses the legal and regulatory environment for investment in sustainable energy.
2. Korea, DPR is a high-impact country but it is not shown because there is no RISE data available.
3. The dotted line represents approximately the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir by India and Pakistan. The final status of Jammu and Kashmir has not yet been agreed upon by the parties.
4. These maps were produced by SEforALL. They are based on the UN Map of the World, which can be found here: http://www.un.org/Depts/Cartographic/map/profile/world.pdf. The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other information shown on these maps do not imply, on the part of SEforALL, any judgment on the legal status of any territory or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.
SOURCE: Regulatory Indicators for Sustainable Energy (RISE), World Bank Group, 2017. Data extracted from http://rise.esmap.org/ on 06/23/2017.
Electrification: RISE Energy Access vs Business Environment
Quick Facts
Of the world’s 20 countries with the largest number of people without electricity, only five - Bangladesh, India, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda - provide comprehensive policy support for energy access according to the Regulatory Indicators for Sustainable Energy (RISE).
Sub-Saharan Africa—the least electrified region with over 600 million people without electricity in 2014—has one of the least developed policy environments to support energy access. This includes, for example, Ethiopia, Nigeria and Sudan, three countries with a consumed unserved population of 116 million in 2014.
Kenya received a high score for energy access in RISE and showed one of the most notable improvements in performance on Doing Business indicators in 2015/16. Kenya streamlined the process of getting electricity by introducing a geographic information system that allows the utility to provide price quotes to customers without conducting a site visit. This reduced the time and interactions needed to obtain an electricity connection as well as its cost. Attractive investment incentives and mini-grid standards have also encouraged private sector engagement.
In India in 2015/16 the utility in Delhi streamlined the connection process for new commercial electricity connections: the time needed to connect commercial consumers to electricity was reduced from 138 days in 2013/14, to 45 days in 2015/16. Connection costs were also reduced from 846 percent of income per capita in 2013/14 to 187 percent in 2015/16.
Context
- RISE offers policy makers and investors detailed country- level insights on the policy and regulatory environment for sustainable energy across 111 countries globally.
- To enable private sector businesses to start, operate and expand their activities, and eventually deliver clean, affordable and reliable energy, an enabling business environment is required. Doing Business ranks economies from 1-190. A high ease of doing business ranking means the regulatory environment is more conducive to the starting and operation of a local firm.
- By looking at how countries perform on RISE and Doing Business, it is possible to get a sense of where progress is needed on the enabling environments to support energy access and energy market development.
- Those high-impact countries that score in the upper range on RISE tend to also rank higher on Doing Business, however progress is still needed on the regulatory environment
for businesses.
NOTES: 1. Regulatory Indicators for Sustainable Energy (RISE) is a suite of indicators that assesses the legal and regulatory environment for investment in sustainable energy.
2. ‘Electrification plan approved and monitored’ refers to the existence and monitoring of officially approved electrification plans.
3. ‘Quality of electrification plan’ refers to the quality of officially approved electrification plans.
SOURCE: Regulatory Indicators for Sustainable Energy (RISE), World Bank Group, 2017. Data extracted from http://rise.esmap.org/ on 06/23/2017.
Electrification: Investments
Quick facts
The annual average investment needed over 2010-30 to ensure everyone has access to electricity in the 17 high-impact countries covered by the Access Investment Model (AIM) ranges from just over $1 billion to provide everyone with access to 24 hours of electricity a day on very low-powered appliances (i.e tier 1) to around $40 billion to provide everyone with access to 23 hours of electricity a day on very high- powered appliances (i.e. tier 5).
Context
- The Multi-Tier Framework (MTF) redefines energy access to fill the gaps in the traditional binary access measurement, which assesses whether someone has an electricity connection or not. The MTF classifies energy access into tiers to reflect a spectrum of service levels. These range from tier 1 access that supports two light bulbs and a phone charger at a capacity of 20 Watts per hour, to tier 3 access that supports productive uses and a minimum consumption of 1kW per hour, to tier 5 access that allows multiple uses of electricity in a household at a minimum consumption of 8.2 kW per hour. The MTF captures the granularity of energy access attributes such as capacity, duration of supply, reliability, quality, affordability, legality, and safety.
- The World Bank’s Access Investment Model (AIM) provides detailed bottom-up estimates of the average annual cost of reaching universal access to electricity over the period 2010- 2030. It calculates the investment, operating, and fuel costs to provide enough on-grid, mini-grid, or off-grid electricity according to the MTF. It assumes that all people without access are provided with the same level of energy service and calculates costs for the five energy service levels (or tiers) defined in the MTF. AIM covers 17 high-impact countries. At present, it does not include data for Chad, Mali and Zambia.
- The World Bank/ESMAP, in partnership with the Scaling up Renewable Energy Program, is undertaking a global MTF survey to collect baseline data on energy services in 15 countries, including: Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda, Zambia, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Niger, Liberia, India (7 low access states), Bangladesh, Myanmar, Cambodia, Nepal, Honduras, Haiti. The survey, covering household access to electricity and clean cooking, is carried out through a household questionnaire applied to a nationally representative sample of households. The survey will be extended to cover another 10 to 15 countries in 2018–19.
* 2012 Estimate
NOTE: World Bank’s Access Investment Model (AIM) calculates the investment, operating, and fuel costs to provide enough on-grid, mini-grid or off-grid electrification for meeting a specified scenario for energy access based on a multi-tier access framework.
SOURCE: International Energy Agency (IEA) and the World Bank, 2015. ‘Sustainable Energy for All 2015 - Progress Toward Sustainable Energy’.
Electrification: Urban/Rural Divide
Quick facts
The urban access rate was 96.3 percent in 2014, and the rural rate 73.0 percent.
Electricity access advanced faster in urban than rural areas over the period 2012-14. An additional 81 million people a year in urban areas were provided with access to electricity over 2012-14. In contrast, only 6 million people in rural areas gained access annually, a number outpaced by population growth of 7 million.
As of 2014, most cities in the Asia-Pacific region have reached universal access to electricity. In contrast, almost 390 million people living in rural areas of Asia remain unserved.
Afghanistan, China, and Pakistan all made good progress in electrifying rural areas, increasing access for around 2.5 million more people than the annual population increase over 2012-14. Decentralized solar photovoltaic systems are beginning to have an impact in hard to reach rural settings.
As of 2014, 482 million of the 1.06 billion people without access to electricity lived in rural parts of Africa, with most of them residing in Sub-Saharan Africa. In Malawi, Tanzania, Uganda and Niger, four high impact countries, 80 percent of the population lived in rural areas with electrification rates as low as 4-5 percent over the period 2012-14.
In urban parts of Africa, the electricity access rate increased from 70.4% in 1991 to 76.0 percent in 2014. But about 110.6 million people still lacked electricity in 2014, as urban population growth had offset access gains.
Context
- Urban access rates have increased only marginally in the 25 years from 1990 to 2014. However, sustaining those rates represents a major achievement given rapid urbanization that has added 1.6 billion people to the world’s cities during this period.
- Progress in rural electrification has been improving albeit not fast enough. The access gap between urban and rural populations narrowed to 20 percentage points in 2014, from 35 percentage points in 1990. Most of those without access to electricity live in rural areas, particularly in rural Africa where electrification access lags population growth.
* 2012 data
SOURCE: International Energy Agency (IEA) and the World Bank. 2017. “Progress Towards Sustainable Energy: Global Tracking Framework 2017” (April), World Bank, Washington, DC. International Energy Agency (IEA) and the World Bank, 2015. “Sustainable Energy for All 2015 - Progress Toward Sustainable Energy”. Data extracted from http://gtf.esmap.org/ on 06/22/2017.