In the Critical 9 countries* for access to cooling, there are 772.2 million people at high risk due to a lack of access to cooling. This includes 183.8 million people among the rural poor and 588.4 million people among the urban poor. By proportion of the population, risk is most significant in the three African countries among the Critical 9, with Mozambique having 83 percent of its total population at high risk, followed by Nigeria (53 percent) and Sudan (44 percent).

Change in India, which has the largest number of people at high and medium risk, is likely the most significant dynamic observed overall, with rural poor and urban poor populations declining by 16.9 million people and 4.2 million people respectively. At the same time, India’s lower-middle-income population at medium risk has grown by an additional 21.8 million people, with the shift likely a reflection of progress in rural electricity access and economic resilience, with a levelling off of poverty in 2021-22 following an increase at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The analysis also found 2.9 billion lower-middle-income people, inclusive of 1.39 billion women and 1.53 billion men, are at medium risk of lack of access to cooling, particularly affordable clean and efficient cooling. This is an increase of approximately 11 million people, driven primarily by increases in South Asia (India, Bangladesh, Pakistan), Nigeria and Yemen. Overall, this figure has risen 7.1 percent between 2019 and 2023.

This data points to the growing risks to energy systems and emissions posed by increased demand for cooling. It must be met with strong policy commitments from national governments on codes, standards and national cooling action plans that deliver sustainable cooling for all.

Released in conjunction with the Clean Energy Ministerial and Mission Innovation meetings in Goa, India, and amid a coordinated effort to advance sustainable cooling progress ahead of COP 28, this year’s Chilling Prospects data underpins a call to action for the policy, investment, and support needed to deliver equitable access to cooling for those most vulnerable to the growing impacts of a warming world.   

Explore the Chilling Prospects 2023 findings here.

*The Critical 9 countries are: Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mozambique, Nigeria, Pakistan and Sudan. The Critical 9 countries were identified in Chilling Prospects 2018 as the 9 countries with the largest number of people at high risk due to a lack of access to cooling overall.

“Rising temperatures are threatening our food and health systems, and we often fall back on energy-intensive cooling appliances which undermine our progress against climate goals, said Elizabeth Chege, Energy Efficiency and Cooling Specialist at SEforALL. “With a growing population, the demand for cooling is rising and the proposed actions in this National Cooling Action Plan are designed to meet Kenya’s cooling demand and enhance access to cooling services, through a market transition to high energy efficiency appliances and transforming the cooling sector to natural refrigerants.”

The NCAP will bring a cross-sectoral market transition to energy-efficient air conditioning and refrigeration equipment, a greater push for smart urban and building design approaches, and enhanced access to agricultural cold chain solutions for poor, vulnerable populations, with cross-cutting mainstreaming of gender and youth considerations.

The plan’s development was led by the Government of Kenya’s Ministry of Environment Climate Change and Forestry and supported by development partners, including GIZ’s Green Cooling Initiative, the Collaborative Labeling and Appliance Standards Program (CLASP), and SEforALL.

Find out more about SEforALL’s Cooling for All programme that advocates for greater action on sustainable cooling and develops evidence, partnerships, policy and tools to make that action possible.