Cooling access gaps forecast to 2030

In 2022, Chilling Prospects forecasted access to cooling risks in 2030. It found that current trends will leave more people at high risk at the end of the decade. Still, a pathway that delivers universal electricity access and ends extreme poverty by 2030 would reduce the number of people at high risk by 36 percent, or more than 450 million.

The Chilling Prospects 2023 analysis revised figures utilized for the 2030 forecast on the basis of newly available data on poverty, including the World Bank’s revision of the international poverty line from USD 1.90 to USD 2.15 per day and improvements in data availability for India and several West African countries. The 2030 forecast for access to cooling gaps will be updated in due course following the release of the Chilling Prospects 2023 tracking data.

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Chilling Prospects 2022 Special: Delivering Cooling for All, SDG7 and Climate Action

Projections of access to cooling in 2030

Forecasting methodology

Latest data

Populations at risk across all countries in three scenarios (2022 analysis and 2030 projected)