COP29 Outcomes: Reversal of hard-won gains creates an opportunity for the private sector to step up and lead

Nearly 200 countries and over 55,000 participants met in Baku, Azerbaijan for the 29th Conference of Parties of UNFCCC (COP29) to decide on the next steps in tackling climate change.

The discussions revolved around reducing emissions, increasing national climate ambitions, UN carbon markets rules, moving away from fossil fuels and crucially agreeing on how much money developing countries will get to tackle and prepare for climate change in what is known as the 'New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance' or simply ‘NCQG’.  

While some progress was made at COP29, this year’s COP is viewed as a reversal in ambition, as there was no agreement on phasing out of fossil fuels, and the new climate finance goal of USD 300 billion annually by 2035, is viewed as largely inadequate. However, there may be a silver lining. With thousands from the private sector participating (in no means limited just to the large fossil fuel sector participation) and growing their numbers at COPs annually, there were many discussions on just how these institutions could fill the growing financing gap.

Notable progress

COP29 will be best remembered for the full operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund as well as carbon markets, and renewed calls for more ambitious national climate goals.  

COP29 saw the adoption of the decision to operationalize the Loss and Damage Fund, a critical milestone. The successful operationalization of this Fund remains a pressing task in the months ahead with pledges to the Fund still far from the USD 580 billion in climate-related damages that developing countries could face by 2030, underscoring the need for sustained collaboration and ambition.

Under Article 6.4, governments agreed on strong standards for a centralized carbon market under the UN; this is welcome given that this agreement is the product of over 10 years of work. Also, agreement on Article 6.2 will go a long way towards allowing for the international transfer of carbon credits and the full operationalization of the carbon credit mechanism, potentially bridging the climate financing deficit impacting the energy transitions of emerging and developing countries.

COP29 saw calls for countries to set ambitious national targets and accelerate their net zero greenhouse gas emission goals. Countries must update their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) by February 2025 under the terms of the Paris Agreement and COP29 saw several countries such as The United Kingdom, Brazil and Mexico announcing early submission of their new NDC targets, setting the stage for what will be expected from NDC 3.0 and proactive responses to the 2023 global stocktake decision.

Another key area that was particularly welcome at COP29 was the announcement by the world's top multilateral development banks (MDBs) to increase climate financing for low- and middle-income countries to reach USD 120 billion a year by 2030. This will go a long way in helping countries around the world to meet their climate goals and adapt to the effects of climate change.

The fails

A new finance goal, which was the key expected outcome at COP29, saw an agreement to triple finance to developing countries, from the previous goal of USD 100 billion annually, to USD 300 billion annually by 2035. The parties also agreed to secure efforts of all actors including from public and private sources to the amount of at least USD 1.3 trillion per year by 2035. While this marks a significant increase from the previous pledge, the deal is woefully insufficient to address the scale of the climate crisis and support the financial needs of developing countries.

Another key area that was expected at COP29, was strengthening the phasing out of fossil fuels to support clean energy transitions globally. Last year at COP28, countries agreed to "transition away from fossil fuels" but in the final COP29 text, there was no mention of this commitment. This outcome was made more disappointing because it came alongside the 2023 global stocktake’s categorical pronouncement that the world must move away from fossil fuels if we are to achieve our global climate goals. This omission in the final text was seen as a reversal of the hard-won progress made last year.  

Showcasing solutions and enhancing ambition

For SEforALL, COP29 was an opportunity to showcase climate leadership through people-centered energy transitions. It was encouraging to see the breadth of initiatives launched during COP29 that will help address current gaps in ambition, resources and support for a just and equitable energy transition, especially in developing countries and in support of vulnerable groups.

SEforALL is proud to have worked with partners in designing or launching the following:

The G20 Just and Inclusive Energy Transition Compact

In a landmark step toward sustainable and equitable global energy transformation, the G20 Brazil presidency with the support of SEforALL, formally unveiled the "Just and Inclusive Energy Transition Compact" at COP29 in Baku.  

The Compact aims to serve as a catalyst for global action, creating a roadmap for inclusive and just energy transitions. This initiative will harness support from a wide array of stakeholders, fostering enduring commitments and contributing to sustainable, equitable energy policies globally.

More on this compact here: https://www.seforall.org/news/brazil-launches-new-compact-for-a-just-and-inclusive-global-energy-transition  

AI-powered tools to support energy planning in developing countries

IBM and Sustainable Energy for All (SEforALL) announced new, publicly available artificial intelligence (AI)-powered solutions to inform more sustainable urban development for cities and communities around the world.

The solutions will enable decision-makers and policymakers to map urbanization and identify energy and infrastructure needs for communities in developing regions.

More on these tools here: https://www.seforall.org/news/sustainable-energy-for-all-and-ibm-launch-new-ai-solutions-for-energy-and-urban-development  

Cross-continental partnership on critical transition minerals

The Africa-Europe Foundation (AEF) and SEforALL launched a cross-continental platform to unlock cooperation on critical minerals for energy transitions.

This new AEF and SEforALL partnership will guide Africa-Europe cooperation on critical minerals based on data-driven insights, while facilitating knowledge-exchange, capacity sharing, and investment mobilization. The partnership has a strategic focus on driving delivery of the Principles and Recommendations of the UN Secretary-General’s Panel on Critical Energy Transition Minerals.

More on this partnership here: https://www.seforall.org/news/seforall-and-the-africa-europe-foundation-launch-partnership-on-critical-transition-minerals  

The SDG7 Global South Pavilion – A true hub for the Global South

As the host of the SDG7 Global South Pavilion, for four years running, SEforALL together with its partners showcased how to unite global efforts on energy, climate and development; providing a vital hub for COP29 representatives from South and Southeast Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Carribean.

The Pavilion hosted meetings and 20 events bringing together governments, the private sector, civil society, UN bodies and other stakeholders for critical discussions on just and equitable energy transitions, with a strong focus on the need to significantly increase climate and clean energy finance to emerging economies and developing nations.

Here are photos from the Pavilion and across COP29:   https://www.flickr.com/photos/seforall/collections/72157723344435835/  

Recognition of SEforALL’s efforts

TIME named the CEO, Damilola Ogunbiyi, in its 2024 TIME100 Climate list, recognizing her as one of the twenty Titans driving climate action.  

Damilola was recognized for being a steadfast voice and champion of the Global South, and for her passion to accelerate a just and equitable energy transition. The work Damilola and SEforALL are doing on global advocacy, thought leadership, and direct in country work from planning to delivery was recognized, demonstrating SEforALL’s growing impact.

This TIME100 list can be accessed here: https://time.com/collection/time100-climate-2024/  

Our takeaway

COP29 reinforces the need for accelerated just energy transitions in the Global South and the need for greater ambition to tackle climate change. At SEforALL, we continue to advocate for greater financial flows to emerging markets and developing nations, as this is the only way to guarantee that we leave no one behind.  

We look forward to working with new and existing partners to drive more international political and financial commitments toward a just and equitable energy transition, that will significantly increase deployed capital, scale existing technical solutions, and increase the capacity of governments and workforces to address the energy access gaps in developing nations while accelerating these countries journeys towards net-zero.

We will carry the momentum generated by COP29 into the SEforALL Global Forum on 12-13 March 2025 and to COP30 in Brazil, when we will look to secure even greater commitments for a just and equitable energy transition under the ongoing financial system reforms ‘Bridgetown Initiative 3.0’ necessary for climate action.