SEforALL Analysis of SDG7 Progress - 2024

The trend of reducing unelectrified population was reversed for the first time in 2022  

The number of global unelectrified population was reduced from 1.14 billion in 2010 to 685 million in 2022 but increased 10 million from 2021. 

8 million out of the 10 million increase from 2021 to 2022 came from Asia, although the region reduced unelectrified population from 516 million in 2010 to 77 million in 2022. Meanwhile, Africa as a whole has stayed the same level of unelectrified population (591 million) during the same period with rapidly increasing population. 20 African countries increased unelectrified population from 2010.

Countries that are backsliding or made no material changes should have robust tailor-made country strategies and their swift implementation, taking an account of the persistent differences in rural and urban electrification, to achieve universal access by 2030. 

Population without clean cooking access has reduced but shows slow improvement.

There are currently 2.1 billion people without access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking with 50% of them in Asia and 45% in Africa. 75% of the people without access live in just 20 countries with 9 of them in Asia and the remaining 11 in Africa.  

All top 20 access deficit countries have more than 20 million domestic population without access.  While Asia must provide access to a larger number of population by 2030, Africa’s 170 million increase of population without access since 2010 necessitates significant growth of access rate improvement, particularly considering the continent’s expected population growth.

The 2021 data of RE share in Total Final Energy Consumption (TFEC) also showed a setback from the previous year

Regionally, Oceania is the only region that RE share in TFEC progressed from 2020, while Asia had no changes. All other regions show setbacks. The world share of modern renewables in total energy consumption did not change from the previous year, staying at 12.5%

The decline of international public financial flows in support of renewable and clean energy showed a comeback in 2022.  However, the 2022 investment total was just 54% of the 2016 amount and need to be fortified further 

Energy efficiency improvement has been continuously slow

A continuing decline in the pace of progress on energy efficiency since 2015 still persists. The annual average improvement rate between 2010 and 2021 is down to 1.6%, far from the originally targeted 2.6%.  The 2021 annual improvement rate was mere 0.8%, 0.2 percentage point up from the previous year data but still very low.  This makes achieving SDG 7.3 target very difficult. 

Both Africa and Asia remain higher energy intensity than the world average and their progress is slow. Focus on these two regions as well as countries with higher energy intensity in the top 20 energy consuming countries can be effective. 

Based on the current trends, we will still have around 660 million unelectrified people by 2030 (SDG 7.1.1)

A current trend projection and the IEA’s stated policy scenario analysis show that 660-663 million people will remain unelectrified in 2030.

Countries with large unelectrified populations, low electrification rates, negative changes (increased unelectrified population and / or reversed electrification rates), or no material changes in the past few years need to be identified and the efforts to electrify need to be strengthened.

Additionally, countries with the smaller number of unelectrified populations but low electrification rates also need immediate country actions based on sound strategies to leave no one behind. The strongest policy and investment focus need to be continuously on Sub-Saharan Africa.

Based on the current trends, 1.8-2.0 billion people do not have clean cooking access in 2030 (SDG 7.1.2)

Projections show that we are not on track to achieve universal access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking by 2030, with approximately 1.8 to 2.0 billion people expected to remain without clean cooking access based on current trends

Although countries with large population without access can be prioritized for higher impacts on global SDG7.1.2 achievement, those show negative changes (increased population without access and / or reversed access rates) or no material changes, along with countries with very low access rates and countries with low improvement rates, all need tailor-made strategies and their rapid implementation.  

Based on the current trends, renewable energy will have only modest increase by 2030, far below to achieve net zero by 2050.  

The share of renewables in TFEC is projected to increase to only around 21-23% by 2030. While the IEA projection has not changed from the previous year estimate, the 2021 setback lower the straight-line trend projection.   

Africa's modern RE stays around 15% of total RE share without strong advancement, while all other regional have above 60% of total RE shares come from modern RE. Modern RE, electrification and clean cooking accesses should be pushed together in Africa to change this situation. 

Based on recent data, an energy intensity improvement rate of at least 3.8 percent per year from now through to 2030 will be necessary to achieve SDG 7.3

With the continuous slowdown in the rate of improvement of energy intensity, the efforts to reach SDG 7.3 is increasing every year.  The differences between the actual improvement rate and target rate get bigger and bigger. 

All end-use sectors (industry, transport and building) need to be incentivized to be more energy efficient with more investment and better enabling policies and regulations. In-depth analysis of sector specific energy intensity for each country is important to create sound and targeted and effective strategies, considering wide diversity of economic structure and climatic conditions.  
 

The year 2022 was the first year that the number of unelectrified people has increased from the previous year. While Africa is becoming the sole region with the majority (86%) of unelectrified population, the remaining Asia seems struggling last-mile electrification. 

80% of the unelectrified people live in just 24 countries (20 of them in Africa and the remaining 4 in Asia). This has not changed from 2021. 

96% of the global improvement since 2010 has been driven by gains in Asia, particularly in India and Bangladesh (62% and 14% gains, respectively). Meanwhile, India and Pakistan have been struggling to close last-mile electrification, and some Asian countries (e.g., Afghanistan, Yemen) which are not in the top 24 list of the number of unelectrified population show backsliding in access rates in 2022. 

Africa’s gain in electricity access rate has been 15 percentage points, from 44% to 59%, since 2010.  However, with significant population growth, the 2022 unelectrified population has remained the same number with 2010 (591 million). 

The countries with negative changes (increased unelectrified population and / or reversed electrification rates) or no material changes need to be identified and the efforts to electrify need to be strengthened.

There were ~685 million people in the world without access to electricity as of 2022

Population without electricity access, millions, 2022
 

Population without access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking by region, millions, 2022

The share of renewables, including the use of traditional biomass, in total final energy consumption (TFEC) was 18.7% in 2021, receding for the first time since 2010. The world share of modern renewables in total energy consumption stayed at 12.5%.

• The increase of global share of renewables in its total final energy consumption (TFEC) in 2021 was 2.7 percentage point from 16.0% in 2010,  while the increase of the share of modern renewables in 2021 was 3.8 percentage points from 8.7% in 2010. 
• Regionally, Oceania is the only region that progressed from 2020 in RE share in TFEC, while Asia had no changes. All other regions showed setbacks. 
• As for Modern RE share, Africa, Asia and Oceania has increased the shares, Lartin America and the Caribbean and North America and Europe reduced their shares from 2020. Africa's modern renewable share stays around 15% of RE consumption without strong advancement, while all other regions have above 60% of modern sources among RE shares.    
• In terms of RE power generating capacity per capita, Asia made strong progress since 2010, exceeding developed countries’ average growth rate, while Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs, many in SSA) have much smaller growth rates following the slow pace of electrification.  

International public investment in renewables to developing countries bounced back in 2022.  

• The decline of international public financial flows in support of renewable and clean energy hit bottom in 2019, 2020 and 2021, and showed a  comeback in 2022. However, the 2022 investment total was just 54% of the 2016 amount.
• Global total investment in renewables has been increasing but the 2023 amount is still only three-quarter of what is needed to achieve net zero by 2050. More than 80% of the total investment remains concentrated in advanced economies and China.  

Looking forward, based on the current trends, we are not on track to achieve SDG 7.1.2 by 2030

• The share of renewables in TFEC is projected to increase to only around 21-23% by 2030. While the IEA projection has not changed from the previous year estimate, the 2021 setback lower the straight-line trend projection.   
• The IEA estimates that modern uses of renewables would represent just over a third of TFEC in 2030 under its the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 scenario. To achieve this level of share, modern RE needs to be accelerated further, particularly in Africa.  
• Global RE heat consumption is progressing very slowly, while RE consumption in electricity has much higher annual average growth rates since 2010. Transport RE consumption is growing strongly but it needs make up for an extremely low starting point. All the growth trends in heat, electricity and transport have strong variations among regions.    
   

Today, the share of renewables in the energy consumption is 18.7%, 12.5% of which is modern renewables. In 2021, SDG7.2 saw a setback for the first time since 2010

Share of renewables in total energy consumption, % 2010-2021

The world used 4.6 MJ (megajoules) of energy to generate USD 1 of economic activity in 2021, unchanged since 2020

• Africa (5.3 MJ/USD GDP) and Asia (5.0 MJ/USD GDP) remained more energy intensive than the world average with slow progress.
• Latin America & the Caribbean is the least energy intensive region with 3.4 MJ/USD GDP, but it increased 0.1 MJ/USD from 2020. It is followed by North America and Europe (4.0 MJ/USD GDP) and Oceania (4.1 MJ/USD GDP). Both regions reduced their intensity slightly.  
• Of top 20 most energy consuming countries:
  • 13 countries have lower energy intensity than the group average, but 5 countries increased energy intensity from 2020.
  • 10 are more efficient than the world average, with the United Kingdom, Germany and the United States leading the way.
  • 16 countries have improved their energy intensity since 2017.  

This calls for focusing on countries in this top 20 energy consuming group that have higher energy intensity and/or low improvement rate.

The global energy intensity has decreased from 5.5 MJ/USD GDP in 2010 to 4.6 MJ/USD GDP in 2021, but the average annual rate of improvement of 1.6% between 2010 and 2021 was lower than that between 2010 and 2016.

• The rates of improvement have significantly slowed down in the recent years. The 0.8% annual improvement from 2020 to 2021 was the second lowest since 2010 and remains well below SDG 7.3 targets. 
• Global end-use energy efficiency investment decreased 6% from 2022. In 2023, the world invested only around 70% of the annual amount required to meet the SDG7.3 under the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (USD 566 billion per year (2022 USD))

We will need an energy intensity improvement rate of at least 3.8 percent per year through 2030 to achieve SDG 7.3

• Due to the slowdown in the rate of improvement of energy intensity since 2015, reaching SDG 7.3 will require much higher improvement rate than the originally rate of 2.6%. The estimate by the IEA’s scenario analysis showed that we need 3.8% of annual improvement rate between 2022 and 2030 to achieve SDG7.3, due to the slow progress between 2020 and 2021 
• All end-use sectors (industry, transport and building) need to be incentivized to be more energy efficient with more investment and better enabling policies and regulations. In-depth analysis of sector specific energy intensity for each country is important to create sound and targeted and effective strategies, considering wide diversity of economic structure and climatic conditions.  
   

Energy intensity by region, MJ/USD 2017 ppp, 2020 and 2021