Chilling Prospects 2020: Footnotes and References 

Global Access to Cooling in 2020 

  1. Raymond, Colin, et al. “The Emergence of Heat and Humidity Too Severe for Human Tolerance,” Science Advances, Vol. 6, no 19. 8 May 2020. Available: https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/19/eaaw1838

  2. Xu, Yangyang and Wu, Xiaokang, et al. “Substantial increase in the Joint Occurrence and Human Exposure of Heatwave and High-PM Hazards Over South Asia in the Mid-21st Century,” Advancing Earth and Space Science, Vol 1, no 2. June 2020. 

  3. COVID-19: Massive impact on lower-income countries threatens more disease outbreaks, Gavi: The Vaccine Alliance, 3 April 2020. Available: https://www.gavi.org/news/media-room/covid-19-massive-impact-lower-income-countries-threatens-more-disease-outbreaks

Case Study on Sub-national Cooling Vulnerabilities in India 

  1. Mexico Average Temperatures, Climate-data.org. Accessed 23 June 2020: https://en.climate-data.org/north-america/mexico-179/  

  2. Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India, June 2020. 

  3. KAPSARC Data Portal, World Average Degree Days Database (baseline) & World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (projection). 

  4. Japan Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Industry Association, “World Air Conditioner Demand by Region,” June 2019. Available: https://www.jraia.or.jp/english/World_AC_Demand.pdf & World Development Indicators, World Bank.  

  1. Note: including vapor compression (air conditioners) and evaporative (coolers) appliances. 

  1. National Family Health Survey 2015-16, International Institute for Population Study, December 2017. Available: http://rchiips.org/NFHS/NFHS-4Reports/India.pdf pg. 66 

  1. Motilal Oswal, “Sector Update: Room Air Conditioners,” 17 April 2018. Available: https://www.motilaloswal.com/site/rreports/636596385051621278.pdf 

  1. “Cooling comfort at workplace can up productivity by 12 per cent: Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad” The Economic Times, 4 July 2016. Available: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/jobs/cooling-comfort-at-workplace-can-up-productivity-by-12-per-cent-iima/articleshow/53049438.cms?from=mdr 

  1. Ibid. Note:  Studies indicate 25-30-degree Celsius as the optimum temperature range in workplace 

  1. Degree Days Calculated via Degreedays.net, using a 21°C base temperature and averaging between 2015 and 2019.  

  1. “Heat Takes Heavy Toll Across India,” The Weather Channel, 31 May 2019. Available: https://weather.com/en-IN/india/news/news/2019-05-31-heatwave-maharashtra-telangana-andhra-pradesh-rayalaseema-vidarbha 

  1. Roadmap for Planning Heatwave Management in India, Institute for Global Change and Sustainable Health, Taru Leading Edge and Climate & Development Knowledge Network, September 2016. Available: https://www.preventionweb.net/files/50954_50954roadmapforurbanheatwavewarning.pdf  

  1. “Ahmedabad Heat Action Plan: Guide to Extreme Heat Planning in Ahmedabad, India. Amdavad Municipal Corporation, 2019. Available: https://www.nrdc.org/sites/default/files/ahmedabad-heat-action-plan-2018.pdf 

  1. “India reels as summer temperatures touch 50°C,” BBC, 3 June 3 2019. Available: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-48495492  

  1. Cooling Degree Day Average, 2015–2019, using a 21°C set point 

  1. For maximum and average temperatures, data from the cities of Jodhpur (Rajasthan) and Patna (Bihar) were retrieved from climate-data.org  

  1. Rajasthan, Poverty, Growth & Inequality, World Bank Group, 2016. Available: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/423761467995629413/pdf/105877-BRI-P157572-ADD-SERIES-India-state-briefs-PUBLIC-Rajasthan-Proverty.pdf  and Bihar: Poverty, Growth & Inequality, World Bank Group, 2016. Available: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/781181467989480762/pdf/105842-BRI-P157572-PUBLIC-Bihar-Proverty.pdf 

  1. Air conditioner, refrigerator and fan ownership rates are expressed as a % of the population. Source: National Family Health Survey 2015–16, International Institute for Population Study, December 2017. Available: http://rchiips.org/NFHS/NFHS-4Reports/India.pdf  

  1. Note: the scope of this assessment is for 28 Indian states and two union territories (Delhi and Jammu and Kashmir).  The reference to states in this case study is defined in the above-mentioned scope. 

  1. Based on available data, this assessment includes the 28 states and only two of the eight union territories of India. 

  1. 2019 population estimates as per Statistics Times, http://statisticstimes.com/demographics/population-of-indian-states.php 

  1. Based on available data, this assessment includes the 28 States and only two of the eight union territories of India.   

  1. Jammu and Kashmir and Uttarakhand data are not available for air conditioner ownership. 

  1. Cooling degree days were calculated via Degree Days.net with a base temperature of 21°C. 

  1. Estimates for all cooling appliances are based on NFHS-4 Survey of the Indian Institute for Population Studies and Motilal Oswal, Room Air Conditioner Sector Report 2018. 

  1. Based on data from Ministry of Statistics, Government of India. 

  1. Data for Uttarakhand are not available. 

Cooling for All and COVID-19 

  1. Mahler, Daniel G, et al. “Updated estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on global poverty” World Bank Group, 8 June 2020. Available: https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/updated-estimates-impact-covid-19-global-poverty 

  1. “COVID-19 vaccine tracker,” Regulatory Affairs Professionals Society. Accessed 17 June 2020. Available: https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker 

  1. Weintraub, Rebecca, Prashant Yadav and Seth Berkley. “A Covid-19 Vaccine Will Need Equitable, Global Distribution,” Harvard Business Review, 2 April 2020. Available: https://hbr.org/2020/04/a-covid-19-vaccine-will-need-equitable-global-distribution 

  1. Progress and Challenges with Achieving Universal Immunization Coverage, UNICEF and the World Health Organization, July 2019. Available: https://www.who.int/immunization/monitoring_surveillance/who-immuniz.pdf?ua=1 

  1. Progress and Challenges with Achieving Universal Immunization Coverage, UNICEF and the World Health Organization, July 2019. Available: https://www.who.int/immunization/monitoring_surveillance/who-immuniz.pdf?ua=1 

  1. COVID-19: Massive impact on lower-income countries threatens more disease outbreaks, Gavi: The Vaccine Alliance, 3 April 2020. Available: https://www.gavi.org/news/media-room/covid-19-massive-impact-lower-income-countries-threatens-more-disease-outbreaks 

  1. More than 117 million children at risk of missing out on measles vaccines, as COVID-19 surges, Statement by the Measles and Rubella Initiative, 14 April 2020. Available: https://www.who.int/immunization/diseases/measles/statement_missing_measles_vaccines_covid-19/en/ 

  1. Over 13 million children did not receive any vaccines at all even before COVID-19 disrupted global immunization, UNICEF, 24 April 2020. Available: https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/over-13-million-children-did-not-receive-any-vaccines-all-even-covid-19-disrupted  

  1. Gaveriaux, Laura Mai. “French scientists are using the measles vaccine to develop a “Trojan horse’ against the coronavirus,” Business Insider, 14 April 2020. Available: https://www.businessinsider.com/french-scientists-using-measles-vaccine-against-covid-19-2020-4?r=US&IR=T 

  1. Azimi T, Franzel L, Probst N.. Seizing market shaping opportunities for vaccine cold chain equipment. Vaccine, April 2017. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2016.12.073. 

  1. Franco, A. et al (2017). A review of sustainable energy access and technologies for healthcare facilities in the Global South. Available: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213138817301376?via%3Dihub  

  1. Diop, Makhtar, “What Would It Take to Deploy COVID-19 Vaccines through Sustainable Cold Chains?” World Bank Group, 1 May 2020. Available: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/what-would-take-deploy-covid-19-vaccines-through-sustainable-diop

  1. Kujopers, Dymfke, Simon Wintels and Naomi Yamakawa, “Reimagining food retail in Asia after COVID-19,” McKinsey & Company, March 2020. Available: https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Industries/Retail/Our%20Insights/ 

  1. SEforALL estimate based on FAO production statistics, FAOSTAT, and The Global Food Cold Chain Council, (2015). “Assessing the potential of the cold chain sector to reduce GHG emissions through food loss and waste reduction.” Available: http://www.foodcoldchain.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Reducing-GHG-Emissions-with-the-Food-Cold-Chain-NOV2015.pdf 

  1. The Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) Program 

  1. Headey, Derek D and Harold H Alderman. “The Relative Caloric Prices of Healthy and Unhealthy Foods Differ Systematically across Income Levels and Continents,” The Journal of Nutrition, Volume 149, Issue 11, November 2019. Available: https://academic.oup.com/jn/article/149/11/2020/5535433 

  1. Social protection and COVID-19 response in rural areas, Food and Agriculture Organizations of the United Nations, 8 April 2020. Available: http://www.fao.org/3/ca8561en/CA8561EN.pdf 

  1. Global Report on Food Crises 2020: Joint Analysis for Better Decisions, Food Security Information Network and the Global Network Against Food Crises. Available: https://www.fsinplatform.org/sites/default/files/resources/files/GRFC_2020_ONLINE_200420.pdf  

  1. COVID-19 global economic recession: Avoiding hunger must be at the centre of economic stimulus, The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 24 April 2020. Available: http://www.fao.org/3/ca8800en/ca8800en.pdf 

  1. Tamru, Seneshaw, Kalle Hirvonen and Bart Minten, “Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on vegetable value chains in Ethiopia,” 13 April 2020. 

  1. Delhi: Palam records highest April temperature since 1970 at 45.3 degree Celsius, The Times of India¸ 1 May 2020. Available: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/delhi-palam-records-highest-april-temperature-since-1970-at-45-3-c/articleshow/69122413.cms 

  1. “COVID-19: 80 migrants died on special trains between May 9 to May 27, Railway Protection Force says,” Scroll.in, 30 May 2020. Available: https://scroll.in/latest/963323/covid-19-80-migrants-died-on-special-trains-between-may-9-to-may-27-railway-protection-force-says 

  1. Technical Brief: Protecting Health from Hot Weather During the COVID-19 Pandemic, Global Heat Health Information Network, 25 May 2020. Available: http://www.ghhin.org/assets/technical-brief-COVID-and-Heat-final.pdf  

  1. Weintraub, Rebecca, Prashant Yadav and Seth Berkley, “A Covid-19 Vaccine Will Need Equitable, Global Distribution,” Harvard Business Review, 2 April 2020. Available: https://hbr.org/2020/04/a-covid-19-vaccine-will-need-equitable-global-distribution 

  1. Responding to the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on food value chains through efficient logistics, FAO, 4 April 2020. Available: http://www.fao.org/3/ca8466en/CA8466EN.pdf 

  1. Preparing for a long, hot summer with COVID-19, World Health Organization, 11 May 2020. Available: http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/health-emergencies/coronavirus-covid-19/news/news/2020/5/preparing-for-a-long,-hot-summer-with-covid-19 

  1. Planning Checklist: Managing Heat Risk During the COVID-19 Pandemic, The Global Heat Health Information Network. Available: http://www.ghhin.org/assets/Checklist-COVID-HEAT-final.pdf 

  1. Global LEAP Finance Facility: Accelerating Early Stage Appliance Markets, Efficiency for Access Coalition. 

The Productivity Penalty of Failing to Deliver Sustainable Cooling 

  1. Van Elkan, Rachel (1995). “Accounting for Growth in Singapore,” from “Singapore: A Case Study in Rapid Development,” Ed. Kenneth Bercuson. International Monetary Fund.  

  1. Lee, Katy, “Singapore’s Founding Father Thought Air Conditioning was the Secret to his Country’s Success,” Vox, March 2015. Available:  https://www.vox.com/2015/3/23/8278085/singapore-lee-kuan-yew-air-conditioning 

  1. “Heat stress spike predicted to cost global economy $2.4 trillion a year,” (July 2019) UN News. Available: https://news.un.org/en/story/2019/07/1041652 

  1. Chavaillaz, Yann, et al., “Exposure to excessive heat and impacts on labour productivity linked to cumulative CO₂ emissions,” Scientific Reports, 9 September 2019. Available: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-50047-w 

  1. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are scenarios that include time series of emissions and concentrations of the full suite of greenhouse gases and aerosols and chemically active gases, as well as land use and land cover. For full a full definition of the four RCPs used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, please see the IPCC Data Distribution Centre: https://www.ipcc-data.org/guidelines/pages/glossary/glossary_r.html#:~:text=RCPs

  1. Kalibarta, Dr. Agnes, “Africa’s Growth lies with Smallholder Farmers,” Agra, Growing Africa’s Agriculture, 23 November 2017. Available: https://agra.org/news/africas-growth-lies-with-smallholder-farmers/ 

  1. Sabo, B.B. et al, “Role of Smallholder Farmers in Nigeria’s Food Security,” Scholarly Journal of Agricultural Science, 7(1), February 2017. Accessed 29 May 2020. 

  1. “Economic Empowerment of African Women through Equitable Participation in Agricultural Value Chains,” (2015). African Development Bank. Available: https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Publications/Economic_Empowerment

  1. Pereira, Laura, "Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture Across Africa," Oxford University Press, March 2017. Available: https://oxfordre.com/environmentalscience/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780199389414.001.0001/acrefore-9780199389414-e-292 

  1. Pradhan, Bandana, “Heat Stress Impacts on Cardiac Mortality in Nepali Migrant Workers in Qatar,” Cardiology, 143(1): 1-12. July 2019. Available: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/334436946

  1. “Heatwaves,” World Health Organization, Available: https://www.who.int/health-topics/heatwaves#tab=tab_1 

Sustainable Cooling Solutions 

European Partnership for Energy and Environment (2019), Count on Cooling: A five-step approach to deliver sustainable cooling. Available: http://countoncooling.eu/index.php/a-5-step-approach-to-sustainable-cooling/ 

GIZ (2017), Green Cooling Initiative: innovative solutions for sustainable cooling. Available: https://www.giz.de/en/worldwide/28042.html 

Government of the United Kingdom and Northern Ireland, Guidance: International Climate Finance. Available: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/international-climate-finance  

Heriot Watt University and University of Birmingham (2019), Clean Cooling Landscape Assessment. Available: https://www.clean-cooling.ac.uk/technology 

IEA (2019) Energy Efficiency Training Week Paris 2019. Available: https://www.iea.org/events/energy-efficiency-training-week-paris-2019-2 

Indo-Swiss Building Energy Efficiency Project, Technologies & Tools. Available: https://www.beepindia.org/technologies-n-tools/ 

Sustainable Energy for All (2019), Cooling for All Needs Assessment. Available: https://www.seforall.org/cooling-for-all/needs-assessment 

UN Environment (2019), Cooling in a warming world: Opportunities for delivering efficient and climate friendly cooling for all. Available: https://www.ccacoalition.org/sites/default/files/resources/2019_cooling_warming_world_UNEP.pdf 

High-impact countries

Algeria, Angola, Argentina, Bangladesh, Benin, Bolivia, Brazil, Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Cameroon, Chad, China, Congo, Rep., Cote d'Ivoire, Djibouti, Dominican Republic, Egypt, Eritrea, Eswatini, Gambia, The; Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, India, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Lao PDR, Liberia, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Morocco, Mozambique, Myanmar, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Senegal, Somalia, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Togo, Uganda, Vietnam, Yemen

Data: High-impact countries 2010-2020

Critical 9 countries

Critical 9 are the countries with largest number of people at high risk: India, China, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Mozambique, Sudan, Brazil