Transport and Motor Vehicle Fuel Efficiency
The global vehicle fleet is set to increase rapidly from about 850 million today to as much as 2.5 to 3 billion by 2050. Ninety percent of this growth is set to take place in developing and transitional countries. As the average vehicle fuel economy in these countries is stagnant, it is predicted that greenhouse gas emissions of the global fleet are set to triple. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the transport sector has the highest growth of CO2 emission of any sector – its contribution to energy related CO2 emissions are estimated to go from one quarter today to one-third by 2050. Black carbon and pollutant emissions are also set to increase similarly with major health and short-term climate impacts.
The Global Fuel Economy Initiative (GFEI) was established in 2009 with the primary aim to reduce emissions and at least double the efficiency of the global vehicle fleet from an average of 8l/100 km in 2005 to 4l/100 km by 2050. It also aims to halve new light duty vehicle fuel economy (in l/100km or gCO2/km) by 2030 – based on IPCC and G8 targets and recommendations. Even if vehicle kilometres driven will double by 2050, efficiency improvements on this scale would effectively cap emissions of CO2 from cars at current levels. It is estimated that CO2 savings would exceed 1Gt CO2 annually by 2025 going to 2Gt CO2 annually by 2050.